LT Weekly: Oct 03, 2025

The doors closed on another stellar quarter of stock market gains, following the huge Q2 rebound which puts the S&P 500 and NASDAQ up a lofty +17% and +14% YTD, respectively.

Looking at performance across our LionTree Universe of ~193 stocks in the TMT and Consumer sector with $1bn+ market caps, 61% of stocks trading up in Q3 which is a strong majority But it is noting that it was to a lessor degree than in Q2 when 72% traded up.

In terms of magnitude, of those stocks that traded up, 67% trading up double-digits, which is only a tad higher than the 66% in Q2, while on the other end, of those stocks that traded down, 52% traded down double-digits, which was more meaningfully higher than the 43% that traded down double double-digits in Q2.

Which stock saw the largest gain in Q3 in our Universe? It was Opendoor, which surged a whopping +1,395% in the quarter aided by hedge fund manager Eric Jackson endorsing it, saying it could become a “100-bagger”, which energized retail investors on platforms like X and Reddit and lead to a strong short squeeze. A subsequent PIPE investment, mgmt. changes, and further institutional investor sponsorship also contributed to the strength (link). Following Opendoor, Jumia traded up +189%, and The RealReal, traded up +122%, rounding out the Top 3 best performers in Q3.

Which stock had the toughest Q3? It was Iridium Communications, which fell -42% in Q3, followed by Gogo, down -41% and Charter, down -33%, to make up the Bottom 3 worst performers.

• How did the “Magnificent 7” do in Q3? Tesla was up +40% in Q3, followed by Alphabet, up +38% and Apple up 24%; Amazon and Meta on the other hand were stagnant in the qtr

This week’s $55bn buyout of Electronic Arts by Silver Lake, PIF, and Affinity Partners isn’t just the largest LBO in history, it is also a strategic bet on the enduring power of franchise IP in a consolidating gaming landscape.

EA’s portfolio of globally recognized sports titles like FIFA, Madden, and UFC sits at the intersection of gaming and sports IP, a space where few assets exist outside of media rights. The Co also has an array of non-sports games anchored by Battlefield, Apex Legends, and The Sims.

The timing of the deal is notable in that EA is “entering the most exciting release cycle in EA’s history” per CEO Andrew Wilson on the Co’s last earnings call. The FY 26 release slate includes F1 25 (May 30), College Football 26 (July 10), Madden NFL 26 (Aug 14), FC 26 (Sept 26^th but the release was to mixed reviews – link), NHL 26, and of course Battlefield 6 (Oct 10^th), and Skate (by the end of the fiscal year).  Essentially, the Co’s business was at an inflection point and now it will have the opportunity to take these new games to a higher level with its new owners and partners.

For PIF, the deal builds on a multi-year push into gaming and entertainment, following stakes in Nintendo, Take-Two, and Scopely, among others as well as additional investments n the entertainment & sports sector. Silver Lake, meanwhile, adds EA to a growing roster of sports and media investments that includes Endeavor and City Football Group. Together, the consortium is positioning EA not just as a publisher, but also as a platform for global IP monetization across gaming, sports, and live entertainment. Bottom line, this transaction’s 25% premium and record-setting valuation reflect the scarcity of investable AAA publishers and the rising strategic value of content that is supported by loyal, global audiences.

-> EA’s stock jumped +15% on the news but closed the day flat, while Take-Two closed down -1.4%; YTD EA is up 37.7%, and Take-Two is up 39.9%

The $55bn Electronic Arts’ LBO Deal Breakdown (link/link/link/link/link)

• Acquirers: Silver Lake, Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Affinity partners
• Deal size: $55bn

• Structure: Stockholders will receive $210/shr, a 25% premium to unaffected share price
  • PIF will roll over its existing 9.9% in EA, and the consortium will acquire 100%

• Valuation: This $55bn LBO valued EA’s at a TTM EV/EBITDA of 30.6x (vs TTWO’s EV/EBITDA of 50.2x)
• Microsoft’s $68.7bn Activision deal valued the Co at a TTM EV/EBITDA of 26.8x
• Expected close: Q1 FY27 (calendar Q2 2026)

What Are Other Gaming/Entertainment Investments Made By The New Owners? (link/link/link/link/link/link/link)

• PIF’s has made substantial investments in the TMT sector and aims to localize technology, develop telecom and media infrastructure, and accelerate digital transformation across industries

• Among PIFs gaming investments:
  • Before this annc’d transaction, had purchased a 9.9% stake in EA
  • Bought Scopely in Apr 2023 for $4.9bn & Scopely purchased Niantic’s game business on May 2025 for $3.5bn (this includes Pokémon Go)
  • Acq’d an 8.1% stake in Embracer Group, parent Co of Plaion, THQ Nordic, and Coffee Stain, on June 2022 for $1bn
  • Acq’d ESL FACEIT Group on Jan 2022 for $1.5bn
  • Acq’d 5% stakes in both Capcom and Nexon Gaming for a combined $1bn
  • Holds a 7.54% stake of Nintendo
  • Holds a 6.19% stake in Take-Two Interactive

• PIF also has investments in the sports & entertainment space
  • LIV Golf: Feb 2025 invested ~$5bn
  • Newcastle United F.C.: Dec 2024 invested ~$415mn (80% stake)
  • Mclaren Racing: Feb 2024 invested ~$740mn
  • Professional Fighters League (PFL): Aug 2023 invested ~$100mn

• Silver Lake Investments in sports & entertainment
  • Endeavor (take-private agreement): Apr 2024 committed equity of $13bn
  • Diamond Baseball Holdings (DBH): Aug 2022 invested $280mn
  • City Football Group: Nov 2019 invested $500mn

Other Notable Deals In The Gaming Sector

• Feb 2024: Disney annc’d acquisition of 9% of shares of Epic Games (makers of Fortnite) for $1.5bn
• Oct 2023: Microsoft annc’d the acq of Activision (maker of Call of Duty) for $68.7bn…follows acquiring Mojang (makers of Minecraft) in 2014 for $2.5bn
• Jan 2022: Sony Interactive annc’d the acquisition of Bungie (makers of Halo) for $3.7bn

The Deal Represents The Largest LBO In History (link).

• KKR has been involved in most of the 10 large LBO deals (4/10) while Silver Lake has been involved in 2.

The regulated prediction market platform Kalshi (which allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events) created quite a scare in the sports betting sector this week.  After data was reported that weekend trading volume on the platform hit an all-time high of $538mn (with football markets accounting for ~98% of activity), the Co then launched a new sports parley feature that coincided with NFL Monday Night football.  This sparked a strong sell-off of the sports betting stocks, DraftKings and Flutter.

Adding to the prediction market updates this week, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev posted on X that the Co’s event contracts surpassed 4bn to reach an all-time high, and 2bn of that occurred in Q3.  As a reminder, the Co started offering event contracts in late 2024 and also recently announced the launch of pro and college football prediction markets directly within the Robinhood app as well. The Co now offers contracts across crypto, economics, financials, sports, culture, and more. As a broader vision, Tenev has said, “we believe in the power of prediction markets and think they play an important role at the intersection of trading, news, information, economics, politics, culture, and sports.”

With the sport betting stocks under pressure, a few analysts argued that the sharp sell-off was overdone and potentially a buying opportunity, and aside from the prediction market updates, there were a couple other key developments in the betting sector. Amazon Prime made a notable move with an agreement with FanDuel to bring real-time betting insights to NBA broadcasts and DraftKings also struck an exclusive deal with NBCUniversal to integrate across major sports coverage, from the NFL and Premier League to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It was a busy week in the sports betting and predictions marketplace with a lot of opportunity but an evolving competitive structure.

See below for more details.

-> Robinhood shares spiked +12.3% on the back of the social media post while DraftKings and Flutter traded down -11.6% and -10.3%, respectively; YTD, Robinhood is up +299%, but DraftKings and Flutter are down -4.9% and -0.8% respectively.

Kalshi’s Platform Sees Record Volumes & The Co Launched A New Offering Of Sports Parlays To Coincide With NFL Monday Night Games (link/link/link)

• Data showed that Kalshi traded $260mn in volume on Saturday and $275mn on Sunday, breaking its previous record of $245mn set on Election Day 2024
  • The Packers–Cowboys overtime game alone generated $57.2mn, becoming the most traded single event in the Cos history
  • Of the $538mn traded on Kalshi over the weekend, 98% of volume involved sports contracts and more than 90% of that was related to football

Source

• Then on Monday, the Co quietly rolled out a “build your one” parlay product on Mon afternoon just ahead of the NFL matchups between the Dolphins and Jets and the Bengals and Broncos
  • How does it work? Users can select different bets, such as a game winner, a player to score a touchdown, or total points, to make up legs of the parlay; It is then sent out to certain other users on the Kalshi exchange as a “request for quotations,” asking them to give a price to the opposite side of the parlay
  • How are they priced? By institutional market makers or large-scale traders who typically receive rebates or other incentives for offering odds on certain bets
  • Concerns emerged: If the Co’s same-game parlay proves popular, it may be able to offer the same products with dramatically better odds than FanDuel or DraftKings

• At the end of the week Kalshi also annc’d a partnership with the Pro Padel League to launch its first padel prediction market, allowing fans to bet on City’s Cup Final matches (Oct 16–19, 2025) at NYC’s Hammerstein Ballroom
  • This follows a recent Pro Pickleball Association deal (Sept 2025)

Robinhood’s Event Contracts Scaled Quickly In Q3, Hitting An All Time High (link/link)

• Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4bn contracts all-time, with 2bn of that occurring in Q3
  • “And we are just getting started”

Source

Sports Betting Stocks Trade DOWN But Several Wall Street Analysts View The Reaction As “Overdone” (link/link)

• Morgan Stanley:
  • Views the drop in both DraftKings and Flutter as a “knee-jerk overreaction”
  • Maintains bullish outlooks w/ over 40% upside to their price targets ($52 for DraftKings, $352 for Flutter)
  • Emphasized that both companies offer a broader range of wagers and could benefit from market growth regardless of how prediction markets evolve
  • Noted that if prediction markets gain regulatory clarity, DraftKings and Flutter could launch rival products (Flutter already has a deal with CME Group for prediction contracts)
• Stifel:
  • Called the sell-off a “compelling buying opportunity”
  • Argued that prediction markets like Kalshi and Robinhood are structurally limited in replicating sportsbook-style parlays due to collateral requirements and liquidity constraints
  • Reiterated Buy ratings on both stocks
• Jefferies:
  • Noted that while prediction markets are targeting high-margin products like parlays, their offerings remain limited compared to what DraftKings and FanDuel provide

Other Key Sports Betting Updates Also Emerged This Week

• Amazon Prime Video is teaming up with FanDuel for real-time betting updates in NBA games (link)
  • How will it work? Bettors will be able to link their FanDuel account to their Amazon profile and see how their wages are playing out in real time; Users can check wins and losses and track parlays but will not be able to place new bets on Prime video
  • OddsView: A separate overlay option will update odds, lines, probabilities, money lines, spreads and game props all in real time
  • Why? This is an extension of how Prime Video displays sports and is looking to gain more viewers with new features & enhancements
  • Talent: Former LA Clipper Blake Griffin is set to debut as an analyst on NBA on Prime and has also been named an ambassador for FanDuel’s NBA offering

Source

• DraftKings & NBCU enter into an exclusive agreement for cross-platform integration across major sports properties (link/link): Terms of the agreement includes…
  • DraftKings will be featured across NBCU’s wide-ranging sports portfolio, including the NFL, PGA TOUR, Ryder Cup, Premier League, NCAA football & basketball, NBA, WNBA, and more
  • The partnership also covers NBCU’s events such as Super Bowl LX, NBA All-Star Weekend, and the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup on Telemundo

AI model improvements and use cases continue to come at a non-stop rate, reshaping how AI is built, deployed, and monetized.  This week’s updates that were of particular note include: 1) OpenAI launching Sora2, a next-gen text-to-video model, while also debuting a social app built entirely around AI-generated content (now brining more competition to short form video); 2) Anthropic’s new Claude Sonnet 4.5 now sitting at the top of real-world coding benchmarks and the model added productivity tools; 3) DeepSeek introducing a novel sparse attention architecture that slashes compute costs and API prices while delivering the same performance; 4) OpenAI debuting Instant Checkout, which is a new feature that lets users buy single items directly from merchants via ChatGPT, starting with Etsy and soon expanding to over 1mn Shopify sellers (both of those stocks rallied); 5) The NBA and AWS integrating AI to enhance fans’ game experiences via “NBA Inside the Game”; and lastly 6) Microsoft rolling out Agent Mode in Excel and Word, enabling help with more complex projects. Overall, a lot of progress and innovation in the AI sector is being made at lightning-speed and this week’s updates are just more examples of that…below are additional details.

Meaningful AI Platforms Updates This Week…OpenAI Enters Social Media…Anthropic & Deepseek Release More Powerful Models

• OpenAI launched Sora2, its next-gen text-to-video model (link) …you can see many amazing videos generated with the new Sora2 HERE
  • Generates synchronized audio (dialogue, sound effects, ambient noise)
  • Has improved physical realism (e.g., realistic object interactions)
  • Maintains scene consistency across multiple shots
  • Supports cinematic, realistic, and anime styles
  • A key feature is “Cameo”:
    • Users opt into a video & audio verification process to create their likeness
    • Public figure depictions will be blocked unless opted in
  • Safety measures include all videos having visible watermarks and C2PA metadata
  • Price? Free to use with “generous” limits; Sora 2 Pro available to ChatGPT Pro subscribers

• OpenAI is entering the social media market via the Sora iOS app…which will be powered by Sora2 (link/link)
  • Content will ALL be AI: No uploads will be allowed; All content must be created in-app using Sora 2
  • Design purpose: To inspire creation, not passive consumption…per CEO Sam Altman, it is the “ChatGPT for creativity” moment
  • App availability: Invite-only in the U.S. & Canada; Web version available for invited users; Android app coming soon

• Anthropic intro’d Claude Sonnet 4.5… “the best coding model in the world” (link)
  • On OSWorld, a benchmark measuring AI performance on real-world computer tasks, Sonnet 4.5 now leads with a score of 61.4%, up from Sonnet 4’s previous high of 42.2% just four months ago
  • New features and capabilities:
    • Checkpoints that save the users’ progress and allow the user to roll back instantly to a previous state
    • New context editing feature & memory tools
    • Can now create and edit spreadsheets, slides, and documents
    • Made the Claude for Chrome extension available to Max users who joined the waitlist last month
  • Claude Sonnet 4.5 is available everywhere today and pricing remains the same as Claude Sonnet 4, at $3/$15 per million tokens

Source

• DeepSeek debuts their latest experimental AI model called DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp (link/link)
  • Intro’d a novel architecture called DSA (DeepSeek Sparse Attention), which dramatically improves performance on long-context tasks while slashing compute costs
  • Cites that DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp slashes API prices by 50–75% compared to previous versions while performing comparably to V3.1-Terminus across key benchmarks

Key New AI Use Cases Also Came To Light This Week…Commerce, Sports, & Work Productivity

• OpenAI annc’d Instant Checkout (link): The new feature will allow users to buy single item directly from merchants through ChatGPT
  • Status: Instant Checkout initially supports single-item purchases from U.S. Etsy sellers, and more than 1mn Shopify merchants are coming soon
  • Timing & availability: The feature is available to U.S. ChatGPT Plus, Pro & Free users, and the Co plans to expand regional availability in the future
  • Economics: OpenAI T will take a fee from transactions that are completed through ChatGPT

–> Shares of Etsy spiked +16% and Shopify’s stock rallied +6% on the back of the news.

• The NBA & AWS to integrate AI to enhance fans’ game experiences via “NBA Inside the Game” (link/link): The platform will provide AI powered stats to help fans “dive deeper into games, teams and players; The system processes the league’s player tracking data, analyzing the movements of “29 body parts” to contextualize in-game developments and generate real-time insights
  • Key features of the platform: 1) Defensive Box Score: Uses AI to assign defensive responsibility in real time, enhancing traditional stats with data on primary defenders, ball pressure, double teams, and switches; 2) Shot Difficulty: Introduces Expected Field Goal % to measure the difficulty of each shot based on factors like positioning, orientation, and defensive pressure—giving a fuller picture of shooting skill; 3) Gravity: Quantifies how much defensive attention a player draws—on or off the ball—by analyzing tracking data 60 times per second, showing how stars create space and advantages without touching the ball
  • “Play Finder” is also coming to the platform: An AI-powered tool that makes NBA footage searchable at the individual play level, analyzing player movements to uncover strategies and provide real-time insights for fans, broadcasters, and teams
  • How will fans access it? It will be available across the NBA App, NBA.com and the leagues social platforms starting the 2025-2026 season
  • As part of the agreement, AWS becomes the official cloud and cloud AI partner of the NBA: This includes its affiliate leagues (WNBA, NBA G League, Basketball Africa League, and NBA Take-Two Media)

• Microsoft launched Agent Mode in Copilot for Excel and Word…But accuracy still needs some work (link/link)
  • What is it? The new Agent Mode in Excel & Word can generate complex spreadsheets and documents with just a prompt; Per Sumit Chauhan, corporate VP of Microsoft’s Office Product Group “It’s work, quite frankly, that a first-year consultant would do, delivered in minutes”
  • LLM tech: Powered by OpenAI’s GPT-5 model, it turns each stage of document creation into an agentic task and executes it automatically
  • How accurate is it? The Co reports that Agent Mode in Excel achieved a 57.2% accuracy rate on SpreadsheetBench, a benchmark for testing AI performance on real-world spreadsheet editing; That places it ahead of Shortcut.ai, ChatGPT with .xlsx support, and Claude Files Opus 4.1, though still short of human accuracy at 71.3%

As AI platforms increasingly shape how users discover and engage with content, the ripple effects across existing tech platforms are becoming harder to ignore. This week, Reddit’s stock took a hit amid concerns that ChatGPT may be siphoning off user engagement and raised questions about how citation visibility in AI models translates to traffic. Meanwhile, YouTube’s dominant presence across AI search tools suggests that some platforms are better positioned to benefit from this shift. Together, these developments highlight a growing tension as AI intermediaries gain traction.

See below for more color on these developments.

• Reddit stock sharply fell on concerns over declining user engagement due to ChatGPT (link): This was sparked by:
  • SimilarWeb data revealing that DAUs were declining on a 30-day average
  • Data from Promptwatch also indicated that Reddit’s citation share on OpenAI’s ChatGPT has decreased in recent weeks
  • RBC Capital analyst Brad Erickson, noted that a 3P study showed the Co’s citation share on ChatGPT had fallen from ~29.2% to just 5.3% since September 10^th and he linked the decline in part to Google reducing its indexing parameters from 100 to 10 results per page, which limits third-party large language models (LLMs) to just one-tenth of the search data they previously accessed
  • A key unknown factor remains: How much of the Co’s traffic is derived from ChatGPT

-> Reddit closed -11.2% after the news

• YouTube is cited in ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google’s AI search results 200x more than any other video platform, according to data released Wed (link): BrightEdge tracked AI citations across major search engines and found that YouTube averages a 20% citation share across AI platforms, making it the most-cited video platform; Additional data from the report…
  • Google AI Overview:
    • 5% YouTube share
    • #1 cited domain
  • Google AI Mode:
    • 6% YouTube share
    • # 1 cited domain
  • Perplexity:
    • 7% YouTube share
    • #5 cited domain
  • ChatGPT:
    • 2% YouTube share
    • Minimal but growing +100% w/w

Big Tech’s race to own the home is entering a new phase…and one where control isn’t just about devices, but about ecosystems, intelligence, and seamless utility. This week, Amazon and Google both doubled down on their smart home strategies with major product refreshes and platform upgrades. Most notable, Amazon introduced new Echo and Fire TV devices powered by Omnisense sensors and Alexa+, enabling proactive features like presence detection (as an example, automatically turning your TV on when you enter the room), ambient AI, and unified control across shopping, media, and security. Google also laid out a redesigned Home app, new Nest cameras, and its Gemini AI platform, which brings natural-language video search, multimodal alerts, and deeper automation to the home. Bigger picture, these moves reflect a broader shift toward ambient intelligence, where the home adapts to its occupants, not the other way around.

Below, we break down the key launches underpinning the battle for the connected home.

1) AMAZON 2025 Devices & Services Event

Amazon Refreshed Its Echo Lineup w/ Improved Audio, Larger HD Displays, & Deeper Alexa+ Integration For More Natural, Proactive Smart Home Interactions (link/link/link)

• Intr’d Echo Dot Max, Echo Studio, Echo Show 8, and Echo Show 11 (see table below)
• Every Echo features the Co’s new Omnisense technology which uses a range of sensors to help Alexa understand what’s happening in the home, such as “whether your front door is unlocked at night”
• The devices will all have cosmetic changes: “The smart displays have vibrant, thin screens, the speakers have a new 3D knit fabric with no seams, and they’re all “acoustically transparent” for vibrant sound”

• Any customer who orders a new Echo will get early access to Alexa+ “out of the box”: New Alexa+ features for Echo:
  • Alexa+ Home offers a unified smart home experience with built-in hubs supporting Zigbee, Matter, and Thread, letting users control devices and view Ring camera events all in one place
  • Alexa+ Shopping Essentials lets users manage orders, reorders, and product info across Amazon, Whole Foods, and Fresh in one place, while also providing gift recommendations
• The Co is soon launching the Alexa+ Store: It will be a central hub to explore and enable thousands of services, manage subscriptions, and personalize Alexa; Brands like Bose, LG, Samsung, and BMW will be integrating Alexa+ into their devices
• Devices available for pre-order Oct. 1^st

Source:

New Fire TVs Feature Sleeker Designs, Better Performance, & Omnisense Technology Which Enables Intelligent Experiences Across Screen Sizes & Price Points (link)

• Intro’d Fire TV Onmi QLED Series, Fire TV 4 Series, and Fire TV 2 Series (see table below)

• Key features/updates across all TVs:
  • Faster speeds: The Series 4 & 2 are 30% faster than before, while the Omni QLED is 40% faster
  • Improved display tech: Brighter screens and enhanced HDR support across the lineup
  • Dialogue Boost: The user can turn up the voice volume w/out increasing background noise
  • Omnisense Presence Detection: The TV can turn on when the user enters a room and turn off when they leave
  • Alexa+ Integration: Goes beyond search to give the user tailored suggestions, find specific scenes in your favorite movies, and take the user directly to what they want to watch across all your streaming services

• The Co also intro’d the Fire TV Stick 4K Select for $40, powered for the first time by its new Vega OS
  • Previously, Fire TVs and streaming dongles relied on Fire OS, which was built on Android, but Amazon is now moving toward greater control with its own platform
    • Vega also runs on the new Echo devices (though it’s unclear if its upcoming TVs will adopt it)
  • The Fire TV Stick 4K Select is faster, supports 4K and HDR10+, and offers popular apps including YouTube, Netflix, Peacock, BBC, Plex, and Disney+

• Pre-orders are available Oct. 1^st

Source:

Ring Cameras & Doorbells Get 2K–4K Resolution, AI-Powered Visitor Interactions, And A New “Search Party” Feature To Help Find Lost Pets (link)

• Intro’d Retinal Vision to Rings 4K & 2K lineup
  • Includes 10x zoom and enhanced low light performance on the 4K models
  • Some 4K models come with power over ethernet (PoE)

• Other new features on both cameras –
  • Familiar Faces: Enroll friends and family so the cameras can recognize them and alert the user exactly who is at the door; Rolling out in Dec
  • Alexa+ Greetings: Customized greetings and instructions for visitors (e.g., delivery drivers); Will launch first on new devices and will roll out to existing customers in Dec
  • Search Party for dogs: A neighborhood-powered feature that uses AI on Ring cameras to help locate lost pets (dogs first, with cats/others to follow); Rolling out in Nov
• Available for preorder on Oct 1^st

The New Kindle Scribe Lineup Is Thinner, Lighter, & Faster With New Productivity Features, Including AI-Powered Notebook Search (link)

• All the devices measure ~5.4 mm thick, thinner than the new iPhone Air, while weighing 400 grams
  • They deliver 40% faster performance
  • Writing on the device should feel more natural, with latency reduced to under 12 milliseconds

• The Kindle Scribe with Colorsoft has a new rendering engine for a richer color screen
• Release Date: The Kindle Scribe with Front light and Scribe Colorsoft will launch later this year, and the basic version will be available early next year

Source

New Blink Cameras Support 2K+ Resolution Across Its Lineup & Launched Blink Arc, A Dual-Camera System Offering 180° Panoramic Coverage (link)

• Blink Mint 2k+ and Blink Outdoor 2k+ (see table below)

• The new Blink Arc ($100) accessory connects two compatible Blink cameras to capture a full 180-degree view into a single feed: Customers must also buy the Blink Arc mount for $19.99

• Preorders start Oct. 1^st

2) MOVING OVER TO GOOGLE…Google’s Home Event 2025   

The Co Redesigned The Home App & Subscription Plan (link/link)

• The Google Home app is getting a major overhaul
  • The new interface, which started rolling October 1st, has been streamlined: Cutting five navigation tabs down to three (Home, Activity, & Automation)
  • Activity tab: “This is now the single history for everything that happens in the users’ home, with events from all their connected first-party and third-party devices. This is where they will find Home Brief to get a quick summary of their day
  • Automation tab: Now features a “new carousel” at the top that shows users upcoming automations about to run in their home

• A new “Ask Home” chatbot provides access to Gemini via voice or text: Users can have it create automations with natural language, ask about home events (“Did my water leak sensor get tripped?”), or search video footage (“Were there any skunks in the driveway last night?)
• The Co’s subscription service is also being revamped: The new Google Home Premium subscription replaces Nest Aware
  • Google Home Premium Standard ($10 monthly/$100 annually): Includes all Nest Aware features (30 days of video history, Familiar Faces, garage door and package detection, smoke and CO listening), plus Gemini Live on compatible smart speakers/displays, natural language automation creation in the Home app, alerts with zoomed-in previews, and whole-home history
  • Google Home Premium Advanced ($20 monthly/$200 annually): Adds “Ask Home” for video search, AI notifications and descriptions, Home Brief, 60 days of event history, and 24/7 video history

• These features are also getting bundled into the Co’s separate AI subscription plans, Google AI Pro and Google AI Ultra
  • The lower-end tier, Gemini AI Pro ($19.99), will get all the features from Home Premium Standard, and subscribers will be able to add Advanced for $10 a month
  • If the user happens to subscribe to the $250 per month Ultra tier then Home Premium is included at no extra cost

The New Nest Cameras Are Built For Multimodal AI Use Cases (link/link/link)

• Intr’d 2 new Nest Cams and a new Nest Doorbell
  • Nest Cam Indoor ($100)
  • Nest Cam Outdoor ($150)
  • Nest Doorbell ($180)

• First hardware designed for Google’s AI-powered “Gemini for Home” platform: While only the wired cameras are getting a hardware refresh, all of Google’s cameras, dating back to the first Nest Cam launched in 2015, will work with Gemini for Home
• Upgrades = sharper 2K video resolution, records HDR video, and provides a wider perspective, with improved low-light performance and access to event history: The higher resolution and wider field of view of the new cameras are designed to feed more data to Gemini, enabling some improved intelligence features, including AI-generated text descriptions
• New Accessibility Features: (on launch)
  • Zoom & Crop + Animated Previews: Digitally zoom in on key areas (e.g., garden bed, walkway) plus zoomed-in animated previews in alerts to highlight what triggered the event
  • Built-in intelligent alerts: It can detect a person, vehicle, and animal; Nest Doorbell also alerts for packages
  • Expanded video history: Included event history doubled from 3 to 6 hours, with 10-second clips for each event

• New AI features: (coming early 2026)
  • AI notifications: More descriptive alerts with zoomed-in video previews (e.g., “dog jumps out of playpen”)
  • Search video history with Ask Home: Now has “natural-language search of events” (e.g., “What happened to the vase in the living room?”)
  • Home Brief: It can summarize hours of footage into quick recaps

Source:

Other Updates That Came Out During The Event

• Gemini for Home also expands with their Walmart partnership for more affordable cameras (available Oct 1^st)
  • onn Indoor Camera Wired ($22.96)
  • onn Video Doorbell Wired ($49.86)
    • Both integrate with the Google Home app, offering 1080p live view, intelligent alerts, and Gemini for Home features

Source

• They unveiled the new Google Home Speaker (Spring 2026)
  • Price: $100
  • It is built for “Gemini for Home”, featuring faster, more natural interactions with light-ring feedback and tap controls
  • Offers 360° balanced audio, stereo pairing, home theater integration with Google TV, and multi-room music
  • Available in four colors (Porcelain, Hazel, Jade, Berry)

Source

Digital advertising took center stage for us this week, with updates from The Trade Desk, Meta, and Spotify all pointing to a clear acceleration in how leading platforms are leveraging data and AI to reshape the landscape. For years, advertisers have wrestled with the cost and complexity of third-party (3P) data, often sidelining its potential despite its proven impact. Now, The Trade Desk is stepping in with an upgrade that could reshape how precision targeting is scaled. Meanwhile, Meta is preparing to tap into a new layer of user data, more specifically, user’s AI interactions, to better personalize content and ads (but raising fresh questions about privacy). And Spotify continues to expand its ad tech footprint and introduced a suite of new partnerships and product features designed to make it easier for advertisers to buy, create, and measure success on Spotify. All these moves reflect a broader push across the sector to make advertising smarter, more efficient, and more integrated with user’s experiences.

See below for more of what we thought was most important regarding each Co’s announcement along this theme.

The Trade Desk Aims To Solve The Cost & Complexity Of Using 3P Data (link/link)

• The Trade Desk annc’d “Audience Unlimited” which is a “major” upgrade to the marketplace for 3P data w/in digital advertising
  • Existing problem: Advertisers can use 3P data to better target campaigns, but many avoid it due to cost and uncertainty about its effectiveness; Those who do use it typically spend nearly 20% of their media budget on it
  • Audience Unlimited as the solution: It removes the cost & complexity barriers to 3P data by using AI to score thousands of segments by relevance to an ad campaign from trusted providers & then bundle them at a lower cost
    • Advertisers can now activate precision targeting at scale w/out unpredictable fees or reconciliation challenges
  • The Co also intro’d Koa Adaptive Trading Modes to help advertisers maximize Audience Unlimited: It offers flexibility to tailor Kokai to campaign strategies of two distinct models, both are powered by agentic AI
    • Performance Mode: Koa acts as a co-pilot, dynamically optimizing bids & allocation to maximize efficiency w/in advertiser-defined guardrails
    • Control Mode: Traders manually manage bids and allocation with full flexibility to structure campaigns, while AI surfaces recommendations they can choose to apply across dimensions such as geography, device type, or format
  • Cost for Audience Unlimited?
    • In Control Mode, advertisers will pay tiered rates of 3.3% & 4.4% of impression costs
    • In Performance Mode, it is included at no additional cost; And advertisers will still be able to apply data w/ a la carte pricing if they so choose

–> The Trade Desk rallied +5.3% after the news but the stock is still down -56.2% YTD

Meta Will Soon Be Using Its AI Interaction Data To Better Target Customers (link/link)

• Meta will soon use a user’s “interactions” with its Meta AI, and other AI features, to personalize the content and ads they see, including things like posts and reels
  • This is an extension to when Meta started using user’s interactions with content on Facebook and Instagram to shape what appeared in their feeds
  • Notifications that the Co will be using user’s AI interaction data will come next week and it will go into effect on December 16, 2025
  • More than 1bn people use Meta AI every month, hence this will give the Co a lot of new information and interaction data to use for ad targeting
  • Users can always adjust the content of ads they see at “anytime”

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Spotify Unveils New Advertising Partnerships & Updates (link/link)

• As part of the Co’s efforts to make advertising on Spotify easier for advertisers, the Co annc’d…

• Enhancements to Spotify Ad Exchange…for the first time, advertisers using Amazon DSP can now access Spotify’s audio & video inventory: By combining Amazon’s “trillions” of shopping, streaming, and browsing data with Spotify’s 696mn monthly users, the partnership gives advertisers scaled reach and full-funnel measurement and attribution capabilities; The Co is also expanding their programmatic “ecosystem” with key updates:
  • ID5 partnership: Boosts programmatic campaign addressability across Europe, helping advertisers better reach music and podcast audiences
  • Yahoo DSP integration: Enables direct buying of Spotify inventory through Yahoo DSP, improving conversion rates by ~70% and cutting cost per action by ~90%, while enhancing targeting via Yahoo ConnectID
  • Publisher opportunities: Starting in 2026, Megaphone-hosted podcast publishers can set up private marketplace deals through Spotify Ad Exchange, expanding monetization options

• Enhancements to Spotify Ads Manager…adding new tools and partnerships to help advertisers of “all sizes create, optimize, and measure their campaigns”
  • Smartly partnership: Integrates Spotify Ads Manager into Smartly, giving advertisers expanded access to audio, display, and video inventory with AI-powered creative, automation, and measurement tools
  • Split Testing tool: Lets advertisers run controlled experiments to identify top-performing creative elements and optimize for key metrics like completion rate, CTR, CPC, and cost per conversion

• QUANTIFYABLE RESULTS…Since the Co’s Ad Exchange launch in April, the number of advertisers using it has risen by 142%
  • On Ads Manager, Web Traffic campaigns delivered 103% higher page view rates than brand awareness campaigns, while App Install campaigns achieve 4.3× higher install rates than non-optimized campaigns

• EchoStar stock soars after a potential Verizon spectrum sales talk (link): Press reports indicated that Verizon is in discussions to buy some of Echostar’s wireless spectrum
  • The talks center on EchoStar’s AWS-3 licenses which are viewed as valuable for carrying 5G signals, according to sources
  • EchoStar began selling assets last month as part of an FCC investigation into whether it was deploying wireless service fast enough
    • In a regulatory filing, the company valued its AWS-3 spectrum at $9.8bn
    • Sources noted that AT&T and SpaceX recently paid well above carrying values for similar licenses, though such a premium may not apply in a potential deal with Verizon
  • Timing? The talks coincide with a planned federal auction of another portion of the AWS-3 band next year

-> EchoStar closed +7.9% after the news and the stock is up +236.7% YTD

• CoreWeave signed new $14.2bn cloud capacity order form with Meta (link/link)
  • Agreement details: Provides Meta reserved cloud computing capacity; Orders can be amended by mutual agreement
  • Financial commitment: Meta committed to pay up to ~$14.2bn through 14-Dec-31 and they also have the option to materially expand commitment through 2032 for additional capacity

-> CoreWeave closed +12% on Tuesday after the announcement, while Meta close down -1.2%

• AI actor Tilly Norwood gained traction and created outrage in Hollywood this week (link)
  • Backstory: Dutch comedian Eline Van der Velden’s Co Xicoia first introduced Tilly Norwood (July 2025), she is entirely AI-generated, as Hollywood’s first “AI actor”
  • SAG-AFTRA condemned the move: Stating that creativity must remain human-centered and arguing that Tilly is trained on actors’ work without permission or compensation
    • Celebrities including Melissa Barrera and Natasha Lyonne publicly called for boycotts of any agency that signs the AI character, labeling the move “gross” and “deeply misguided”
  • Van der Velden defended Tilly as a “creative work” and a new artistic genre, promoting the character at Zurich Summit; Tilly’s Instagram has already gained 33K+ followers

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