LT Weekly: Nov 7, 2025
It was an earnings avalanche (!) this week with over 90 companies in our universe reporting across a wide range of sub-sectors. It feels like a bit of a blur at this point, but we tried to cover as much ground as possible with updates across music, digital advertising, live events/concerts, last mile delivery, online travel, and sports betting, among other areas.
In the background, the markets were under pressure with Nasdaq falling -3% as big tech sold off and the S&P 500 was down -1.6%. Concerns about the AI trade as well as sensitivity regarding the health of the consumers were front and center. But the economy seems to be chugging along. At this point, 91% of the S&P 500 companies have reported and according to FactSet, blended y/y earnings growth stands just above 13% vs the 7.9% expected at the end of the quarter and ~82% of companies surprised on earnings (above the one-, five-, and ten-year averages). The one caveat is that the magnitude of those beats has lagged longer-term averages.
The key themes/developments that we focused on in this edition are below:
- Earnings Scorecard – Week 4
- Investors Are Still Waiting For The Fruits Of Spotify’s Investments & Execution To Come
- While WBD Posts Mixed Q3 Results, Strategic Options/Direction Remain Key Driver
- The Predictions Market Will Be A “Significant Opportunity” And “Incremental” But Structurally Inferior To Traditional OSB, Says DraftKings
- GTA VI Delay Takes The Spotlight Away From TTWO’s Otherwise Strong Performance
- Pinterest Doubles Down on Shopping, But UCAN Softness Lingers
- Profitability Takes Center Stage At Snap, But With A User Engagement Trade Off
- Live Nation Faced Short-Term Mix Pressure But Big Venues Drive the Next Act
- Growth Pillars Are Intact…TKO Is An “Execution Story”
- The Bar Was High But Uber Continues To Cruise Down The Fast Lane
- DoorDash Keeps Ringing The Bell but Its 2026 Spending Tab Raises Eyebrows
- No Slowdown In Travel Despite Govt Shutdown – Quick Takes On Travel Trends From Airbnb, Expedia, & CLEAR
- Addtl Quick Takes: AppLovin, Shopify, The Trade Desk, Unity, & Lyft
Lastly, I would like to highlight that LionTree served as financial advisor to MARI on its acquisition of IMG’s Arts & Entertainment and Action Sports events portfolios.
I hope you have a nice weekend. This edition is a bit more robust than our usual comprehensive report!
Best,
Leslie
P.S. If this email has been forwarded to you and you would to join our distribution list, please email me. Thanks!
Earnings Scorecard – Week 4
A nose bleeding 91 companies in our LionTree Universe reported this week, which is up from 36 in Week 3. The bias with stock reactions was negative with 42 trading up and 49 trading down. The worst performer was Duolingo, down -26%, and the best performer was Lemonade, up +34%.
Application software was represented this week with Unity leading up +18% in reaction (Theme 13) while Shopify traded down -7% (Theme 13) and others such as AppLovin (Theme 13) and Clear Secure (Theme 12) traded only slightly up. Last mile transportation was also represented with Lyft taking top spot at up +5.8% (Theme 13), while Uber fell -5.1% (Theme 10) and DoorDash cratered -17.5% (Theme 11).
Music and Live Events reacted poorly to earnings with Live Nation falling -10.6% (Theme 8), followed by TKO down -3.3% (Theme 9) and Spotify down -2.2% (Theme 2). Online travel had a good week with Expedia up +17.4%, though Airbnb rose only +0.7% (Theme 12).
Some other key results this week were Snap up +9.7% (Theme 7) and Pinterest down -21.8% (Theme 6). The Trade Desk was down -5.9% (Theme 13), Take Two was down -8.2% (Theme 5), DraftKings was up +7.5% (Theme 4) and finally Warner Bros. Discovery was down -1.5% (Theme 3).