The major market indices retrenched this week (S&P 500 down -1.5% and Nasdaq down -2.6%) with Friday’s sell-off a painful way to end the week. The auto tariffs and a few new economic indicators caused angst once again (March US consumer confidence hitting a 12-yr low, and weaker flash March PMI, for example) along with growing concerns regarding AI infrastructure overcapacity. This also wasn’t a helpful backdrop for CoreWeave’s IPO this week, which broadly disappointed.
Not to be too negative here but the “R” word has been coming up more and more and it was interesting to see results from a CNBC survey that showed that 60% of CFOs predict a US recession in late 2025 (link). That certainly doesn’t seem to be priced into the market despite the recent sell-off.
On a lighter note and quite exciting, Blue Origin set the launch date for their tourist flights for April 14th at 9:30am ET It will be a star-studded all-woman crew (civil rights activist Amanda Nguyen, CBS Mornings co-host Gayle King, pop superstar Katy Perry, film producer Kerianne Flynn, entrepreneur & former NASA rocket scientist Aisha Bowe, and journalist & philanthropist + Jeff Bezos’ partner Lauren Sánchez)…a live stream will be available on www.space.com (I’ll be watching!).
In this edition, we focused on:
- Is The AI Trade Over? AI Chips Capacity & Restrictions Take Center Stage
- Tech Companies Attempt To Keep Up With The Joneses With New AI Updates
- One Step Forward, Two Steps Back For The Tech IPO Market
- Key Sector Investments And Addtl M&A Rumblings This Week
- It Looks Like TikTok Will Keep On Ticking In The US…
- A Couple Key Sports Related Updates That Made The Cut
- “Uncertainty” Makes Its Way Into US Ad Market Estimates
- Grab Bag: xAI Buys X / Lululemon’s Has A Tough Earnings Report / Waymo Launching In Washington DC In 2026
Have a nice weekend and get ready for next week’s reciprocal tariffs announcements, which could lead to another choppy week.
Best,
Leslie
Is The AI Trade Over? AI Chips Capacity & Restrictions Take Center Stage
There was A LOT of talk and focus this week on AI infrastructure and whether or not we are in an over-capacity situation, given the extremely high levels of investment that have been plowed into the sector to support what has seemed like endless demand. The chip industry and specifically Nvidia were spooked by several developments out of China this week. To begin with, comments from Alibaba Chairman Joe Tsai about a “bubble” in US AI data center buildouts caused quite a stir, as he flagged the astronomical level of investment happening in the region ahead of projected, but unguaranteed, demand. Separately, but underscoring that point, a note out from TD Cowen noted that Microsoft was pulling back from data center leases in the US and Europe, with Microsoft saying they are “well positioned” to meet their current needs. The move comes after Microsoft also decided to forgo some new business with OpenAI and altered its agreement to allow the Co to use cloud computing svs from other Cos.
The question on data center supply and demand imbalances wasn’t just applicable to the US, as a report out from MIT Technology Review found that up to a whopping 80% of China’s newly built computing resources remain unused. On top of that, China’s overall spend on computer chipmaking equipment is expected to fall -24% y/y to $38bn, though it still far outpaces any other region, including Korea, Taiwan, Americas, and more. That said, 3C (one of China’s largest server makers) reportedly flagged potential shortages and a supply crunch of Nvidia’s H20 chip due to the chips “international supply chain [facing] significant uncertainties,” including geopolitical tension and supply of key materials (recall that China & HK account for ~13% of Nvidia F25 annual revenue, making it the Co’s 4th largest region).
The comments come as the regulatory hammer continues to come down both in the US and China. The US this week expanded its export restrictions list to include 50+ more Chinese companies due to national security and foreign policy concerns. Separately, but related, several foreign officials and major tech companies are calling for the US to rethink a Biden-era “AI diffusion rule” that goes into effect on May 15th and would restrict the # of AI processors that can be exported to most countries. Over in China, new energy efficiency requirements from the country’s National Development and Reform Commission for chips in new data centers and those that are being expanded caused some investor unrest as well.
There was a lot to unpack this week…see below for more.
-> The Magnificent 7 stocks were down -2.2%, on avg, for the week, with NVIDIA hit the hardest. down -6.8%
Too Much Data Center Capacity, Not Enough Demand?
- Alibaba Chairman Joe Tsai warns of a potential “bubble” forming in data center construction in the US (link/link)
- “I’m still astounded by the type of numbers that’s being thrown around in the United States about investing into AI”: “People are talking about $500bn, several hundred billion dollars…I don’t think that’s entirely necessary. I think, in a way, people are investing ahead of the demand that they’re seeing today, but they are projecting much bigger demand”
- As a reminder, this year, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta plan to spend $100bn, $75bn and up to $65bn, respectively, on AI infrastructure
- Pointed to a number of projects that have commenced raising funds without having secured “uptake” agreements: “I start to get worried when people are building data centers on spec. There are a number of people coming up, funds coming out, to raise billions or millions of capital”
- “I’m still astounded by the type of numbers that’s being thrown around in the United States about investing into AI”: “People are talking about $500bn, several hundred billion dollars…I don’t think that’s entirely necessary. I think, in a way, people are investing ahead of the demand that they’re seeing today, but they are projecting much bigger demand”
- Microsoft pulls back from data center leases in US and Europe, per TD Cowen (link)
- What does the pullback look like? The retrenchment in the last six months included lease cancellations and deferrals
- Why the pullback? According to a MSFT spokesperson, “Thanks to the significant investments we have made up to this point, we are well positioned to meet our current and increasing customer demand”
- They added that the Co last yr added more capacity than in any other yr in its history
- But investments will still continue: “While we may strategically pace or adjust our infrastructure in some areas, we will continue to grow strongly in all regions…this allows us to invest and allocate resources to growth areas for our future”
- Remains on track to spend ~$80bn building out AI data centers for its fiscal yr (which ends in June); MSFT has said that the pace of growth should slow in the Co’s next fiscal yr
- Other Big Tech Cos are picking up the leases: Google has stepped in to take some of the leases MSFT abandoned in Europe, while Meta took some of the freed capacity
- The pullback also comes after MSFT forwent some new business w/ ChatGPT maker OpenAI, which it has backed w/ $13bn, and has altered its agreement to allow OpenAI to use cloud computing svs from other Cos
- Analysts still think there’s a supply-demand imbalance: “We continue to believe the lease cancellations and deferrals of capacity points to data center oversupply relative to its current demand forecast,” TD Cowen analysts Michael Elias, Cooper Belanger and Gregory Williams wrote
- China built hundreds of AI data centers, but many are not being per MIT Technology Review (link)
- Up to 80% of China’s newly built computing resources remain unused, according to local Chinese outlets Jiazi Guangnian and 36Kr reports
- What’s driving the slowdown? The AI infrastructure push was driven by inexperienced players (including corporations and local govts) jumping into the hype, leading to overbuilt and suboptimal facilities
- Investors are pulling back and data centers are becoming “distressed assets,” and are being sold at a loss
- GPU rental prices have plummeted, making it unprofitable to operate many of these centers
- The rise of DeepSeek has changed AI economics: With its reasoning model offering efficiency at lower costs, many companies are shifting away from large-scale model training, reducing demand for data center capacity
- There’s also a misalignment in AI infrastructure: Many data centers were optimized for pretraining AI models rather than real-time inference, which now dominates demand—leading to an oversupply of the wrong type of compute
- Some players were never in it for AI: Reports suggest some operators exploited govt subsidies, securing cheap energy or land under the guise of AI development but benefiting from state incentives instead
- Despite challenges, China remains committed to AI infrastructure: The govt continues to push AI as a strategic priority
- For example, Alibaba annc’d plans to invest $50bn+ in cloud computing and AI hardware infrastructure over the next 3 years, while ByteDance plans to invest ~$20bn in GPUs and data centers
- China’s AI data center glut is now seen as a “necessary evil”: Experts believe the govt will step in, consolidate distressed assets, and reposition them for future needs
- That said, “demand remains strong for Nvidia chips, and especially the H20 chip, which was custom-designed for the Chinese market… For now, many data centers in China sit in limbo—built for a future that has yet to arrive. Whether they will find a second life remains uncertain”
But China’s Demand For Chips Still Far Outpaces Other Regions
- That said…China is expected to lead in chipmaking investments again in 2025, per industry group SEMI (link): China will continue to invest more in new computer chipmaking equipment than any other geographical region in 2025, DESPITE a significant year-over-year decline
- GLOBAL investments will rise +2% y/y to $110bn in 2025…; The 6th consecutive yr in a row of growth
- …and will accelerate to +18% y/y in 2026
- Chinese spending is expected to fall -24% to $38bn in 2025, which is down from $50bn in 2024
- But that’s still greater than any other geographical region: Korea is expected to spend $21.5bn in 2025; Taiwan is projected to spend $21bn; Americas and Japan are each expected to spend $14bn, while Europe will spend $9bn
- H3C (one of China’s largest server makers) reportedly flagged potential shortages of Nvidia’s H20 chip which have been in hot demand especially post the introduction of DeepSeek’s break-through LLM model in Jan (link): H3C was cited saying current inventory of the H20 chip was nearly depleted
- Reminder that the H20 chip was developed by Nvidia to comply w/ the latest round of US export restrictions which went into effect in Oct 2023
- H3C had expected new shipments by mid-April but indicated that supply plans beyond April 20 also face uncertainties from raw material policy changes, shipping disruptions, and production challenges
- H3C and Nvidia did not comment on these reports
- Analysts estimate Nvidia shipped ~ 1mn H20 units in 2024, generating rev of $12bn+
US and China Tighten Chip Export Rules as Regulatory Pressure Escalates
- US expands export restrictions list, including the addition of dozens of Chinese entities (link): 80 companies and institutes were added to the export control list, w/ the majority (50+) based in China; Others are in Taiwan, Iran, Pakistan, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates
- How do Cos get added to the list? The govt adds Cos to the Commerce Dept’s Entity List for national security or foreign policy concerns; Cos cannot sell goods to those listed w/o applying for and obtaining licenses, which are likely to be denied
- Includes six subsidiaries of Inspur Group, China’s leading cloud computing and big data service provider, which were listed for contributing to the development of supercomputers for the Chinese military
- Five of the subsidiaries are based in China and one in Taiwan
- Inspur Group itself was placed on the list in 2023
- As well as other Chinese firms, including Nettrix Information Industry Co, Suma Technology Co and Suma-USI Electronics: The US said they were added for helping develop Chinese exascale supercomputers, which can process vast amounts of data at very high speeds and conduct large-scale simulations
- Other companies were added to the list for acquiring US-origin items to advance China’s quantum technology capabilities and for selling products to companies that supply other listed parties
- Reasoning for Chinese Co restrictions? Intended to restrict China’s ability to develop high-performance computing capabilities, quantum technologies and advanced AI, and impede China’s development of its hypersonic weapons program
- “We will not allow adversaries to exploit American technology to bolster their own militaries and threaten American lives,” US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said
- China responds: The Chinese embassy in Washington said that it firmly opposed “these acts taken by the US and demand that it immediately stop using military-related issues as pretexts to politicize, instrumentalize and weaponize trade and tech issues”
- Senior foreign officials and major tech companies are calling for the US to rethink the “AI diffusion rule” (link): The US’s AI diffusion rule, which restricts the # of AI processors that can be exported to most countries, has been receiving strong opposition from tech leaders, foreign governments, and US allies
- What does the AI diffusion rule do? It divides the world into 3 categories of chips access –
- Tier 1: Nearly 20 close US partners — located in Europe and East Asia — get mostly unfettered access to AI chips
- Tier 2: For a vast group of countries in the middle, the rule establishes caps on the total computing power available for export; Those restrictions affect nations with significant AI ambitions in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, many of which hadn’t been affected by previous rounds of semiconductor rules
- Tier 3: At the other extreme, adversaries like China and Russia are still effectively barred from importing the technology
- Biden-era rule…: Biden officials unveiled it during their last week in office
- …that govts and Cos are now asking Trump to loosen some of the regulations before the deadline for compliance (May 15th)
- Trump officials remain divided: Some propose tweaks, while others favor stronger controls; Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled a willingness to revisit the rules after pushback from US allies
- Where do the key players stand?
- Tech Giants – Nvidia and Oracle are leading calls for a full repeal, arguing restrictions will stifle US industry growth abroad and encourage development of rival technologies with limited security benefits, while Google and Anthropic are pushing for narrower revisions rather than full repeal
- Foreign govts: India and Poland argue the curbs will weaken their AI ecosystems, while UAE lobbying efforts are tied to a $1.4 trillion US investment plan
- What does the AI diffusion rule do? It divides the world into 3 categories of chips access –
- Investor worries also emerged following new China energy-efficient chip requirements (link): There were reports this week that China’s National Development & Reform Commission asked firms in the country to use energy-efficient chips in new data centers and data centers that are being expanded
- This also hit Nvidia (down -5.7% in reaction on Wednesday) give that its H20 chip apparently does not meet the new requirements
- Companies such as Alibaba and Tencent have reportedly been advised by the commission to not buy the less-powerful Nvidia processors
- Next steps…Nvidia is reportedly trying to meet with the chair of the commission, Zheng Shanjie and is also reportedly adjusting its chip to meet the energy efficiency rules
Tech Companies Attempt To Keep Up With The Joneses With New AI Updates
In addition to all the rumblings and angst about potential over-capacity of AI infrastructure (see Theme #1), the AI arms race has taken on more of a geopolitical flavor ever since DeepSeek revealed its R1 model in January, and competition certainly heated up further this week, with leading tech companies in the US and China announcing another round of significant updates to their AI models. In the US, OpenAI upgraded GPT-4o with its “most advanced image generator yet” and released improvements to ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice Mode. Concurrently, the company is reportedly finalizing a $40bn funding round at a $300bn valuation to augment its war chest for future product development. Google also made headlines by rolling out a new reasoning model, Gemini 2.5 Pro experimental, and touting its superior performance characteristics relative to those offered by OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and DeepSeek.
China Tech’s momentum in AI continued unabated as well this week. Alibaba debuted Qwen2.5-Omni-7B, the latest version of its series of multimodal models, and Tencent launched its Hunyuan T1 reasoning model, which rivals DeepSeek’s R1 in both performance and cost. For its part, DeepSeek made some major improvements to its non-reasoning model. According to a third-party analysis, DeepSeek’s V3 model is now the top non-reasoning model in the market, surpassing Grok as well as models from OpenAI and Google. Over the past two weeks alone, China Tech companies have announced more than 10 major product updates, and it will be interesting to see if this pace of innovation can be sustained and how American companies will respond moving forward. The threat from China could prompt some drastic changes to US policy and result in spillover effects into other industries. For instance, OpenAI pushed the Trump administration earlier in March to lift restrictions on copyrighted material to enable American AI companies to better compete (link).
See below for more details on this week’s avalanche of AI product related updates, which also includes announcements of new AI use cases from Meta, Amazon, and Google:
It Was A Busy Week For OpenAI…
- OpenAI launched its “most advanced image generator yet” within its GPT-4o (link/link): Users can now utilize GPT-4o to create images in ChatGPT with a update called “Images in ChatGPT”; The new image generation capabilities are available across the ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Team, and Free subscription tiers
- The model incorporates new training methods: OpenAI trained the new model on the joint distribution of online images and text to teach it how images relate to language and how they relate to each other; The model has also undergone “aggressive post-training efforts”
- “This model is a step change above previous models”: It has “surprising visual fluency” and is capable of generating images that are “useful, consistent, and context-aware”; See below for a list of improved capabilities –
- Text rendering: The new model makes it easier for users to generate images w/ coherent text and without typos, which has been a challenge w/ existing image generation tools
- Multi-turn generation: Images can be refined through natural conversation, remaining coherent and consistent across multiple iterations
- Binding/instruction following: Whereas most image generators struggle to render multiple items (typically ~5-8 items), OpenAI’s new image generation tool can accurately bind attributes for 15-20 items without confusion
- Other enhancements: Includes better world knowledge, more convincing photorealism, and in-context learning, meaning that the model can analyze and learn from user-uploaded images
- Limitations: OpenAI acknowledged that the model crops some images too tightly, is still prone to hallucinations, has difficulty accurately rendering more than 10-20 concepts, and struggles w/ non-Latin languages; Furthermore, graphs can sometimes be inaccurately rendered
- More details on accessibility: Free users can generate three images per day (similar to the Dall-E model’s usage limit), though “these may change over time based on demand”
- Enterprise and Edu usage will roll out soon
-> On a separate but related note, it was reported this week that OpenAI is nearing the completion of a $40bn funding round led by SoftBank; Other investors, including Magnetar, Coatue, Founders Fund, and Altimeter, are also in talks to participate, per sources; The deal is set to value to the Co at $300bn, or almost double its previous $157bn valuation during its last capital raise in Oct 2024; As part of the deal, Softbank will initially invest $7.5bn, w/ $2.5bn coming from other investors; A second $30bn tranche will occur later this yr (link)
- OpenAI also released updates for Advanced Voice Mode (link/link): The AI voice assistant that converses w/ users in real-time in ChatGPT will now be more personable and interrupt users less frequently; This update aims to address a frequent problem w/ AI voice assistants
- Free users now have access to a new version of Advanced Voice mode: This enables them to pause without being interrupted when speaking to the AI voice assistant
- Paying users will interact w/ a voice assistant that has an improved personality: The new voice assistant will be “more direct, engaging, concise, specific, and creative in its answers; These users, which include Plus, Teams, Edu, Business, and Pro tiers, will also experience less frequent interruptions
-> OpenAI reportedly expects that its annual revenue will more than triple to $12.7bn in 2025 from $3.7bn in 2024; The figure is an upward revision from the $11.6bn that it anticipated last Sept, per a NYT report, given stronger than projected AI software sales; Addt’ly, the Co forecasts $29.4bn in rev in 2026 but does not expect to be cash flow positive until 2029, when it anticipates $125bn+ in rev (link)
AI Updates From Other Big Tech Players
- Google debuted a “significantly enhanced” Gemini 2.5 model w/ reasoning capabilities (link/link): Gemini 2.5 Pro experimental is now available in Google AI Studio and for Gemini Advanced subscribers and devs; The model is also coming to Vertex AI in the coming weeks
- All Gemini 2.5 models are “thinking models”: These models are capable of reasoning through thoughts before responding and processing tasks step-by-step, resulting in more informed decisions and better responses to more complex prompts
- Native multimodality provides Gemini w/ an advantage: The model can interpret text, audio, images, video, and code; Addt’ly, a 2mn token context window is “coming soon” and will help Gemini 2.5 models process even more data
- Gemini 2.5’s “new level of performance” leads the competition: Per Google, Gemini 2.5 Pro experimental outperforms models from OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and DeepSeek on common AI benchmarks that measure understanding, mathematics, coding, and other capabilities
- Gemini Pro experimental “tops the LMarena leaderboard… by a significant margin”: The LMarena measures human preferences and shows Gemini 2.5 Pro excels in science, mathematics, as well as Humanity’s Last Exam, which captures the human frontier of knowledge and reasoning
- All Gemini 2.5 models are “thinking models”: These models are capable of reasoning through thoughts before responding and processing tasks step-by-step, resulting in more informed decisions and better responses to more complex prompts
-> Google also began to roll out a new AI feature to Gemini Live that allows it to “see” users’ mobile screens and answer questions about it; Google first demo’d the Project Astra work that supports the feature in May 2024; Another Astra capability, Live Video, that lets Gemini interpret the feed from users’ smartphone cameras and answer questions in real-time also launched this week (link)
- Meta annc’d several new AI-powered tools to assist advertisers (link): The new tools are intended to help advertisers maximize the performance of their campaigns, driving engagement and conversions
- Meta’s Andromeda system is getting better: The platform’s AI-enabled targeting abilities are improving at displaying ads to the people most likely to respond across all categories, driving better performance
- Advantage+ catalog ads are expanding to partnership promos: Collabs w/ influencers provide another way for brands to reach audiences; Advantage+ catalog ads dynamically show products relevant to the viewer based on their interests, intent, and action
- Advantage+ ads can now highlight addt’l products from a Co’s product catalog: For example, a brand could display jackets from their spring collection and opt to show a dress that the shopper may also be interested in; Initial tests saw a +14% avg rise in ROAS when using this optimization
- AI-generated display models: This will show how clothing looks on different sized, AI generated characters; Google Shopping has had this capability since 2023
- Other AI features in the pipeline include –
- A streamlined checkout process for Advantage+ shop ads: These will enable advertisers to gather contact info and other details within the checkout process
- AI marketing content generation tools: Such as AI text generation for catalog ads as well as more AI image creation tools
- Location-based ad extensions: Displays local stores w/ the advertised item in stock
- Ads in Facebook notifications: Testing will begin in the spring and will only be displayed to people that have previously engaged w/ a brand’s ads
-> Meta also unveiled new features to make it easier for brands and content creators to connect on Instagram; New AI-enabled creator discovery and content recommendation tools are now available in the Partnership Ads Hub in Ads Manager; New features include the ability to determine a creator’s affinity to a brand and the ability to use keyword search; Meta will also now highlight potential collaborators within Instagram’s Creator Marketplace based on each creator’s affinity to a brand (link)
- Amazon is experimenting w/ new gen AI-enabled shopping and health assistants (link): The Co started testing the new svs in beta on its app and website in recent weeks w/ a subset of users
- Interests AI allows consumers to shop for products using more conversational language: The shopping tool prompts users to describe an interesting “using your own words” and then generates a curated selection of products; It is positioned separately from the main search bar on Amazon’s website
- The tool is expected to become available to all US users in the coming months
- Health AI can help address medial needs: The chatbot can answer health & wellness questions, “provide common care options for healthcare needs,” and suggest products; The svs can’t provide personalized medical advice but can provide medical guidance and care tips
- Health AI also points users toward Amazon’s pharmacy and clinical svs offered by One Medical
- Interests AI allows consumers to shop for products using more conversational language: The shopping tool prompts users to describe an interesting “using your own words” and then generates a curated selection of products; It is positioned separately from the main search bar on Amazon’s website
- Microsoft is set to unveil six AI agents for its Security Copilot (link): The new cybersecurity agents will be available in preview in April and are designed to autonomously assist security teams by handling high-volume security and IT tasks
- Functionality: The agents are capable of performing tasks such as triage and prioritizing critical incidents, process phishing, data loss alerts, and monitoring for vulnerabilities
- Microsoft also has partnerships to enable third-party agents: The Co is working w/ OneTrust, Aviatrix, BlueVoyant, Tanium, and Fletch; Extensions will make it easier to analyze data breaches w/ OneTrust or perform root cause analysis of network outages and failures with Aviatrix
China Tech Cos Also Annc’d Some Key AI Model Updates This Week
- Alibaba launched the latest iteration of its Qwen series of AI models (link): The Co’s new Qwen2.5-Omni-7B is a multimodal model that can process inputs across text, images, audio, and videos, generating real-time text and speech responses
- 5-Omni-7B can be deployed on edge devices: Including mobile phones and laptops; It offers a “high efficiency without compromising performance” and can perform tasks such as helping guide a visually impaired person through their environment
- The model is open-sourced on Hugging Face and GitHub: It can also be accessed via Qwen Chat and Alibaba Cloud’s open-source community ModelScope
- 5-Omni-7B “delivers remarkable performance across all modalities”: The model sets a new benchmark in real-time voice interaction, natural and robust speech generation, and end-to-end speech instruction following
-> On a related note, it was annc’d this week that BMW will leverage Qwen-powered AI cockpit tech from Alibaba’s subsidiary Banma to build a new intelligent personal assistant for upcoming models tailored for the Chinese mkt; The assistant will come w/ enhanced voice recognition and trip planning features, offering parking and nearby restaurant recommendations as well as real-time traffic light info (link)
- Tencent released its Hunyuan T1 AI reasoning model to rival DeepSeek’s R1 (link): The launch comes after a beta iteration was tested on Tencent’s Yuanbao chatbot; Similar to DeepSeek’s R1, Hunyuan T1 leverages large-scale reinforcement learning
- The model outperforms R1 in several areas: Hunyuan T1 scored 87.2 points on the Massive Multitask Language Understanding benchmark, which tests a model’s knowledge, topping R1’s 84 points (OpenAI’s o1 scored 89.3); T1 also beat R1 at interpreting a Chinese word across different contexts
- BUT falls short in other ways: R1 scored higher than T1 on the American Invitational Mathematics Examination and was also better at composing a Chinese poem
- T1’s pricing is ~in-line w/ R1’s rates –
- Input pricing: T1 charges 1 yuan ($0.14) per 1mn tokens of input (vs R1’s 1 yuan per 1mn tokens during daytime hours and just 0.25 yuan overnight)
- Outpricing: T1’s output costs 4 yuan per 1mn tokens (vs R1’s 16 yuan per 1mn tokens and 4 yuan overnight)
- The model outperforms R1 in several areas: Hunyuan T1 scored 87.2 points on the Massive Multitask Language Understanding benchmark, which tests a model’s knowledge, topping R1’s 84 points (OpenAI’s o1 scored 89.3); T1 also beat R1 at interpreting a Chinese word across different contexts
- DeepSeek made a significant upgrade to its V3 LLM (link/link): The latest update, dubbed DeepSeek-V3-0324, provides major improvements in areas such as reasoning and coding capabilities, w/ benchmark tests displaying enhanced performance across multiple technical metrics
- The model boasts 671bn parameters: Only 37bn are active during inference, which reduces hardware demands; The model was trained on 14.8tn high-quality tokens and is capable of speeds of 60 tokens per second (three times faster than V2)
- DeepSeek V3 is now the best non-reasoning AI model on the mkt (link): This was per Artificial Analysis, which says its intelligence index measures responses in reasoning, knowledge, math, and coding
- This marks the first time that an “open weights” model has led the pack: For reference, open weights means that a model is fully open source and that the entire model is publicly available to be tweaked and modified
One Step Forward, Two Steps Back For The Tech IPO Market
All eyes were on the biggest tech IPO since 2023…namely CoreWeave. Granted, it was a tough day on Friday given the overall market sell-off but, by all measures, the deal did not fare as well as many had hoped and earlier anticipated. Just last week, reports hit the tape saying that the IPO was oversubscribed (link). Obviously, there was not as much demand as initially conveyed.
CEO Michael Intrator also fielded some tough questions on CNBC this morning before the stock opened but reiterated his long-term confidence and the view that strong demand will remain in place despite concerns that emerged this week about an AI capacity bubble (see Theme #1).
SailPoint was the other recent large tech IPO which debuted in February and raised $1.4bn. The deal broke issue on day one as well and ended its first day of trading down -4.4% and still trades well below its IPO price (ended Friday down -14.5% from IPO).
All an all, these deals do not engender a lot of confidence that the door to the overall IPO market will be swinging widely open, at least in the near term.
Some need to knows regarding CoreWeave’s IPO (link /link)
- The Co cut the size of the deal: Initially planned to sell 49mn shares but scaled that down to 37.5mn, or $1.5bn
- Intrator explained they had to right size the transaction but that it will position the Co for the next phase of growth
- The IPO was priced well below the initial range: The deal priced at $40/shr ($23bn valn fully diluted), well below the initial range of $47-55/shr (which implied a valn up to $32bn)
- Broke deal price: After initially indicating at $50/shr, the stock opened-up early Friday afternoon at $39/shr, -2.5% below the IPO price and closed the day at $39.60/shr
- The IPO investor group was reportedly very concentrated and Nvidia came to the rescue
- Nvidia reportedly came in yesterday w/ an anchor order for $250mn
- Apparently, half of the book was allocated to 3 investors (ie, very high)
- And the top 15 investors took 90% of the deal
- Some company specific dynamics:
- CoreWeave has a very concentrated customer base: Microsoft accounts 62% of 2024 revenue -> And there were recent reports that Microsoft is easing its expansion plans (link)
- The Co recently signed a $11.9bn deal with OpenAI
- The Co has $7.5bn in debt repayments next year
- Revenue last year was $1.9bn
- The Co is unprofitable – lost $863mn in 2024
Key Sector Investments And Addtl M&A Rumblings This Week
Notable TMT & Consumer deals have been slowly gaining momentum with a few more datapoints this week to support the view. Namely, Ubisoft annc’d the €1.16bn investment by Tencent into a new business subsidiary and AT&T is reportedly in exclusive talks to buy Lumen Tech’s consumer fiber biz for ~$5.5bn. This follows Google $32bn deal with Wiz (annc’d on March 18th), Crown Castle’s $8.5bn sale of its fiber business to EQT and Zayo (annc’d on March 13th), SoftBanks’s $6.5bn purchase of Ampere Computing (annc’d March 20th), and Pepsi’s $2bn deal to by Poppi (annc’d March 17th).
While the macro and business environment remains uncertain, and could hold up or delay some transaction processes, it is encouraging to see some key deals make it to the finish line, at least as it relates to being announced! The regulatory reviews are still in the works.
See below for more color on this week’s key M&A/Investment updates…
AT&T Is Reportedly In Exclusive Talks To Acquire Lumen Tech’s Consumer Fiber Business For ~$5.5bn (link)
- Why is Lumen looking to sell? Lumen has been focused on building the backbone for AI (in 2024, it secured $8.5bn in private connectivity fabric deals w/ Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud and Meta) and has been selling legacy business units; Lumen CFO Chris Stansbury hinted at the possible sale of the consumer business in late 2024 as the Co continues to pivot toward becoming “an enterprise company” (Biz svs now account for ~75% of its revenue)
- What other businesses has Lumen sold?
- 2023: Sold its EMEA biz to Colt Technology Services for $1.8bn
- 2022: Sold its ILEC biz (consumer, small business, wholesale and mostly copper-served enterprise customers and assets in 20 states) to Brightspeed for $7.5bn
- Lumen nor AT&T commented on reports
-> AT&T’s shares rose +1.3% on the back of the news while Lumen’s fell -5.2%; YTD, AT&T is up +23.8%, while Lumen is down -25.8%
Ubisoft Makes A Step-Change Towards A New Operating Model After Its Strategic Review That Started Earlier In The Year…Tencent Is Investing In Its Newly Created Subsidiary That Houses 3 Of Its Largest Franchises
- Transaction summary: The Co is creating a subsidiary that includes Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry, and Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six brands and in which Tencent is making a strategic investment
- Goal of the subsidiary: The subsidiary will focus on building game ecosystems designed to become truly evergreen and multi-platform
- Investment amount: Tencent will invest €1.16B for a 25% economic interest in the new subsidiary (apparently the Co had several parties that considered the investment but this was the most attractive offer); This is a binding agreement w/ Tencent
- Valuation: Pre-money EV for the entity is €4B, implying a FY23-FY25E avg sales multiple of ~4x
- Status: The board unanimously approved the deal this week
- Ongoing control: The new subsidiary will remain exclusively controlled & consolidated by Ubisoft
- Timing: Expected to close by the end of the year
- Use of funds? Strengthen Ubisoft’s balance sheet by “significantly reducing its consolidated net debt position, accelerate the group’s transformation, and sustain growth of selected franchises”
- What about outside of the new entity? Ubisoft will “further its other franchises including Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon and The Division, accelerating growth of top performing titles, and leveraging disruptive tech on selected new IPs, while continuing to deliver state-of-the-art production game engines and online services”
-> Also this week, there was a positive datapoint that was disclosed on Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed Shadows…it hit 2mn players w/in 2 days of its March 20th launch (last Thursday), surpassing Origins & Odyssey; This is important b/c the game was originally slated to be released last fall, but was delayed 2x so it looks like they have finally ended up with a product that is, at least thus far, being well received in the market (link)
-> Ubisoft shares rose +13.6% on the back of the announcement, though is only up +0.7% YTD; In 2024, the stock was down -49.4%
It Looks Like TikTok Will Keep On Ticking In The US…
April 5th (next week Saturday) marks the final day of President Trump’s 75-day Executive Order extension for TikTok’s parent Co, ByteDance to find an American investor, or risk the app shutting down in the US. With that date right around the corner, press heated up again this week on what will happen, and the latest reports indicate that a deal is on the horizon. Large US-based institutions that already have an ownership stake in Bytedance, like General Atlantic and Susquehanna, will reportedly increase their stakes and acquire TikTok’s US operations while Oracle will “safeguard the app” in its cloud in turn for a small stake.
VP JD Vance seems to be confident that an agreement on general terms will be reached by the April 5th deadline, saying that “we’re trying to close this thing by early April. I think that the outlines of this thing will be very clear. The question is whether we can get all the paper done” (link). However, at the same time, a group of Democratic Senators propose legislation to extend the deadline to Oct and Trump last month said that he would be willing to extend the April deadline if an agreement over the social media app was not reached.
Also, mid-week, President Trump said that he would be willing to reduce tariffs on China to get a deal done with TikTok’s parent Co ByteDance…”Maybe I’ll give them a little reduction in tariffs or something to get it done” (link/link/link/link). So overall, the administration seems intent on landing on a solution that would result in TikTok continuing to operate in the US.
A couple other points to raise:
- How much would TikTok be valued in this transaction? Press this week cited a wide range of $20-40bn, per deal team members
- Other potential hurdles/considerations:
- There is still controversy around the Chinese-made algorithm (which is apparently part of the deal) as it is seen as a tool used by the Chinese govt to engage in espionage
- The new equity investors have reportedly discussed a White House indemnification over this potential liability
- Others say the new ownership team will eventually have to create their own algorithm to stay w/in the law’s parameters
- This deal would require approval from the Chinese govt
- Of course, a final agreement might not be reached
-> Press this week also follows AI search startup Perplexity’s proposed a bid last week for TikTok, which included plans to rebuild TikTok’s algo (blog post)
-> Also related this week, an updated Pew Research survey showed that US adults are less supportive of a ban than there were in 2023… 34% support a TikTok ban, which is down from 50% saying they supported a ban during Pew’s March 2023 survey; Furthermore, 49% said that TikTok is a national security threat, which is also down from the 59% that felt it was a security treat as of May 2023. (link)
A Couple Key Sports Related Updates That Made The Cut
Sports events and sports media rights remain central to the media entertainment sector given its importance to consumers and importance to the revenue model for major media outlets. Along these lines, news about growing competition for NFL’s Draft media rights, as well as news regarding the NBA furthering its exploration of a European league made the cut for what we thought was most interesting this week…more color below.
Competition For NFL’s Draft Media Right Starts To Heat Up (link/link)
- Who is competing? Fox, ESPN, and ABC are reportedly in the mix, as well as Amazon Prime Video and YouTube (given NFL is expected to add a streaming partner)
- Who is not competing? Netflix is reportedly not -> a bit of a surprise given the cross over of sports & human interest/docuseries potential for this content
- Some basics on the rights –
- ESPN, ABC, & NFL Network have been sharing coverage the last 6 years (Fox last aired the draft in 2018)
- ESPN has been holding the rights since 1980
- Effective date: 2026
- Viewership stats have been strong: The 1st round of the 2024 NFL Draft attracted an avg audience of 12.1mn viewers across all broadcasters (the highest figure since 2021)
- Reported in Feb that talks about NFL Media’s assets (incl. NFL Network, RedZone, & NFL+) to ESPN have resumed, w/ the deal value cited at $2bn and could include the league taking an equity stake in ESPN (possibly 10%, valuing ESPN at $24bn per Bank of America)
- Paramount Global has also been linked to the deal
The NBA Is Exploring The Creation Of A European Basketball League, Potentially Launching In 2026-27 (link)
- Structure of the team: Could include 8-10 teams, incl up to 4 slots for top EuroLeague clubs like Real Madrid and Olympiacos, alongside new franchises in cities such as London and Paris
- Franchise costs? Expected to be $500mn+ each, w/ the NBA retaining a 50% ownership stake
- The NBA apparently prefers to see these franchises to new investors outside the league
- Strategic rationale: Expand basketball’s presence in Europe & capitalize on its growing popularity
- Status: NBA owners are expected to review this plan to launch a European league this week
“Uncertainty” Makes Its Way Into US Ad Market Estimates
Following a stronger than expected ad market in 2024 (+12.4% y/y overall and +9.9% ex cyclical spend), its strongest performance in 25 years ex the post-COVID rebound of 2021, 2025 is starting to look like it will be on shakier ground as the level of uncertainty is spiking which led ad agency Magna cut US ad forecasts for the year ahead. The low visibility on the potential impact of trade policies creates “cautiousness” with marketing decisions. Also recall that two weeks ago, SiriusXM flagged that it has started to “see a drop-off” from advertisers over the last couple weeks.
We suspect we’ll hear a lot more on Q1 earnings calls about advertisers’ willingness (or unwillingness) to spend in the face of this macro uncertainty but typically, this type of environment leads to a budget shift to more lower funnel strategies, so companies hinged to that ad channel tend to relatively outperform. More to come on this theme.
See below for more details and some further takeaways…(LINK)
- Magna cut 2025 US ad mkt growth forecasts from its prior estimates in December… from +4.9% -> +4.3% (ex-cyclical event, from +6.7% -> +7.3%)
- Why? Expect “cautiousness” in marketing decisions in the months ahead due to lack of visibility and the risk of a trade war (which may cause ad budgets to face freezes or cuts in industries that are most vulnerable to global trade) supply chain disruptions, and consumer confidence issues
- One of the bigger changes was Digital ad spend at pure plays ex political, which was cut from +10.4% -> +9.6%
- Traditional media ad spend forecasts were relatively maintained overall, with slightly lower declines expected for Linear (-6.8% -> -5.9%) offset by slightly lower growth expected in Streaming (+15.9% -> +14.3%)
- Local TV estimates were also slightly revised down (see table below)
- Verticals most at risk: CPG, quick-service restaurants, and the auto industry
- Other sectors where spending should fare better: Pharma, retail, tech/telecoms, entertainment, finance and insurance
-> “The current — hopefully temporary — dip in confidence has already dampened the dynamics of the ad market, prompting us to revise our growth forecast for 2025,” Magna EVP Vincent Létang
Grab Bag: xAI Buys X / Lululemon’s Has A Tough Earnings Report / Waymo Launching In Washington DC In 2026
- Elon Musk’s xAI buys social media platform X (link/link/link): Elon Musk said Friday evening (March 28th) that his artificial intelligence Co, xAI has acquired X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter, in an all-stock transaction
- “xAI and X’s futures are intertwined. Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent,” Musk said in a post on X
- The combination values xAI at $80bn and X at $33bn ($45bn less $12bn debt)
- xAI, which was launched in 2023, raised $6bn from investors at a valn of ~$40bn late last yr, according to sources cited by Reuters, and was reportedly in talks to raise funds at a ~$75bn valn last month
- Valn for X is much lower than what Musk originally paid for it: Musk bought X in 2022 for $44bn, ending its run as a public company since its 2013 IPO
- Musk didn’t announce any immediate changes to X
- Though xAI’s Grok chatbot is already integrated into the social media platform
- Lululemon earnings report – “Macro challenges” and “a more cautious consumer” weighed on the outlook: “Consumers are spending less due to incr’d concerns about inflation and the economy”; This has manifested into “slower traffic across the industry in the US in Q1”
- FY26 guidance was underwhelming: The Co anticipates FY26 rev between $11.15-$11.30bn, which was -0.7% below cons at the mid-pt; The expected FY26 EPS range of $14.95-15.15 missed cons by -2.1% at the mid-pt
- Q1 is expected to finish below the Street’s estimates: Projected Q1 rev of $2.335-2.355bn missed cons by -1.9% at the mid-pt, and the forecasted EPS range of $2.53-2.58 was -6.1% below cons at the mid-pt
- Lululemon exceeded most expectations in Q4, though comps fell short –
- Net rev – BEAT by +0.8%: Grew +13% y/y in Q4 (vs +9% y/y in Q3)
- Total comps (reported) – MISS by -210bps: Rose +3% y/y in Q4 (vs +4% y/y in Q3); Americas comps were flat y/y, while total international comps grew +20% y/y
- Gross margin – BEAT by +70bps: Expanded by +100bps y/y in Q4 (vs +40bps y/y in Q3)
- Op margin – BEAT by +90bps: Incr’d +40bps y/y in Q4 (vs +70bps y/y in Q3)
- EPS – BEAT by +5.0%
- Net rev – BEAT by +0.8%: Grew +13% y/y in Q4 (vs +9% y/y in Q3)
- FY26 guidance was underwhelming: The Co anticipates FY26 rev between $11.15-$11.30bn, which was -0.7% below cons at the mid-pt; The expected FY26 EPS range of $14.95-15.15 missed cons by -2.1% at the mid-pt
-> Lululemon’s stock fell -14.2% in reaction to its print and ended the week down -9.2%; YTD the stock is down -23.4%
- Waymo to launch robotaxi svs in Washington DC in 2026 (link/link)
- Testing has already been underway: Waymo began testing the cars w/ drivers behind the wheel in DC last yr
- Working w/ policymakers to formalize regulations to operate w/o a human behind the wheel:
- DC allows AV Cos to their fleets, but the current law does not allow these cars to be operated w/o a driver
- Waymo will spend the next year working with city officials to “formalize the regulatory framework needed to serve riders”
- Newest mkt in a string of launches: Currently operates in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin; Coming to Atlanta and Miami next, with Washington, DC to follow
- Just last week, Waymo announced it would begin mapping roadways around SFO (San Francisco International Airport) ahead of possible robotaxi service to and from the airport
- The week prior to that Waymo said it would expand its robotaxi svs into Silicon Valley
Stock Market Check
This Week's Other Curated News
Advertising/Ad Agencies/Ad Tech
- AppLovin shares dropped 15% after Muddy Waters issued a short report accusing the company of misappropriating data and violating platform terms of service. This marks the third short-seller report against AppLovin in recent months, following similar allegations by Fuzzy Panda and Culper Research. (Bloomberg)
- AppLovin annc’d retaining Alex Spiro of Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan to lead an independent review & investigation into recent short report activity targeting the Co. CEO Adam Foroughi expressed the Co’s commitment to defending its reputation & ensuring facts prevail against false narratives. (Street Account)
- Coca-Cola is in advanced talks to return as a top-tier sponsor of the Premier League after a three-year hiatus. The multimillion-pound deal, if finalized, would make Coca-Cola the official soft drinks partner of the league, a position vacant since 2022. The agreement is expected to be discussed at a Premier League shareholder meeting this week. Coca-Cola has a long history with English football, including past sponsorships of the League Cup and the Championship. (SportsPro)
- Meta has introduced new AI-powered tools to enhance ad performance across Facebook, Instagram, and soon Threads. Key updates include the Andromeda system for smarter ad targeting, Advantage+ sales campaigns for automated optimization, and expanded features like omnichannel ads, AI-generated virtual try-ons, and streamlined checkout processes. Meta also added ads in Facebook notifications and site links in Instagram promotions to boost engagement and conversions. (Social Media Today)
Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning
- Waze has decided to phase out Google Assistant on iOS, citing persistent issues over the past yr. Starting Mar 27, it will be replaced by Gemini, an enhanced voice interaction solution. Gemini, already tested w/ Conversational Reporting, offers natural conversations & incident reporting. Google Assistant remains functional on Android for now. (The Verge)
- Aggressive AI crawlers are overwhelming open-source infrastructure, causing DDoS-like disruptions. Dev Xe Iaso implemented “Anubis,” a proof-of-work system, to combat bots. GNOME GitLab adopted Anubis, filtering 97% bot traffic. Fedora blocked Brazil traffic due to crawler issues. Despite drawbacks for users, Anubis reduced bandwidth costs by 75%. (Ars Technica)
- Former Meta AI execs Devi Parikh & Dhruv Batra raised $15mn for Yutori, an AI startup focused on autonomous personal assistants. The funding round, led by Radical Ventures, includes investors like Fei-Fei Li & Jeff Dean. Yutori aims to redefine user interaction w/ AI agents, enhancing efficiency in tasks like food orders & travel logistics. (Reuters)
- H&M is set to deploy AI “twins” for 30 models in its marketing campaigns, replacing live shoots for social media posts if granted model consent. Models retain control over their digital replicas & get compensated per image use rate. Critics, incl. influencer Morgan Riddle, fear job cuts for production teams & creatives. H&M collaborates w/ Uncut for this initiative, emphasizing clear AI disclosure & watermarking in compliance w/ Instagram/TikTok policies. (BBC)
- Anthropic & Databricks have partnered in a $100mn deal to integrate Anthropic’s Claude models into Databricks’ enterprise platform. This 5-yr collaboration enables 10,000+ customers to deploy AI agents tailored to tasks like fraud detection & customer svs. Claude 3.7 Sonnet, Anthropic’s latest model, offers advanced reasoning & coding capabilities. The partnership emphasizes secure, data-driven AI solutions. (Wall Street Journal)
- Google has introduced AI-powered vacation planning features across Search, Maps, & Gemini. AI Overviews in Search now create itineraries for regions/countries, integrating user reviews & maps. Maps can identify places from screenshots, aiding trip planning. Hotel price tracking alerts users to price drops. Gemini’s Gems feature offers custom AI trip planners. These updates enhance travel planning efficiency. (TechCrunch)
- Perplexity AI has partnered with Firmly.ai to enhance its shopping assistant, enabling seamless integration for online retailers. This collaboration allows merchants to sell directly through Perplexity’s platform, offering users a streamlined shopping experience with features like one-click checkout and unbiased product recommendations. The initiative aims to simplify the path from product discovery to purchase while maintaining trust and transparency. (Fortune)
- OpenAI has temporarily limited image generation requests in ChatGPT due to overwhelming demand, which strained their GPU resources. CEO Sam Altman announced that free-tier users will soon have a cap of three image generations per day. The surge in requests was fueled by the popularity of Ghibli-style image transformations, a feature introduced with GPT-4o. OpenAI is working on optimizing efficiency to lift these restrictions soon. (The Verge)
- Anthropic researchers have made a breakthrough in understanding how large language models (LLMs) like Claude operate, addressing the “black box” issue of AI decision-making. They developed tools to trace AI reasoning, revealing that Claude plans responses many words ahead and thinks in a universal conceptual space, unaffected by specific languages. This advancement could improve AI safety, reliability, and transparency. (Fortune)
- OpenAI is nearing the completion of a $40bn funding round led by SoftBank, valuing the Co at $300bn. Investors include Magnetar Capital, Coatue Management, Founders Fund & Altimeter Capital. SoftBank plans an initial $7.5bn investment, w/ $2.5bn from a syndicate, followed by a $30bn tranche later this yr. OpenAI’s rev is expected to triple to $12.7bn in 2025, up from $3.7bn in 2024. (Bloomberg)
- China Mobile & Alibaba held a strategic cooperation agreement signing ceremony in Beijing. They aim to collaborate in digital infrastructure, application ecosystems, tech innovation & international biz by jointly building & operating AI data centers. The partnership strengthens AI models Jiutian & Qwen, enhances cloud computing & AI svs, and fosters deep AI-industry integration to drive industrial growth. (Aa Stocks)
- Nvidia is reportedly in talks to acquire Lepton AI, a server rental startup, for several hundred mn dollars. Lepton AI rents servers powered by Nvidia GPUs, sourced from cloud providers, to businesses. This acquisition aligns w/ Nvidia’s strategy to expand into AI infrastructure-as-a-service, complementing its recent purchase of synthetic data startup Gretel, and strengthening its AI ecosystem. (TechCrunch)
- OpenAI has adopted Anthropic’s Model Context Protocol (MCP), an open-source standard for linking AI models to data systems, enhancing interoperability. MCP enables AI models to access data from business tools, content repositories & app environments, improving task execution. OpenAI plans to integrate MCP into its Agents SDK, ChatGPT desktop app & Responses API, fostering industry collaboration. (TechCrunch)
- JPMorgan Chase achieved a quantum computing milestone by generating certified randomness using Honeywell’s Quantinuum quantum computer. This breakthrough enhances encryption, security & financial applications. The process involved creating random circuits, testing them on supercomputers, & mathematically certifying randomness. Marco Pistoia, JPMorgan’s tech lead, called it a “breakthrough result” w/ vast applications in cryptography & privacy. (Bloomberg)
- Microsoft has introduced Researcher and Analyst, two AI-powered reasoning agents in Microsoft 365 Copilot. Researcher simplifies complex research by integrating advanced AI models and external data sources, while Analyst acts as a virtual data scientist, leveraging Python scripting for advanced analysis. These tools enhance decision-making and efficiency. The Frontier program will roll out these features in Apr. (The Verge)
- Character. AI launched a “Parental Insights” feature to address safety concerns for users <18yrs. Parents receive weekly emails detailing avg. time spent on the platform, top characters interacted w/, & duration of chats, but no transcript of conversations. This follows lawsuits alleging harm to minors linked to chatbot interactions. The Co plans further refinements to enhance safety. (The Verge)
- Apple annc’d WWDC 2025 will happen from June 9-13 at Apple Park, Cupertino, CA, featuring iOS 19, macOS 16, & other OS updates. iOS 19 introduces a major design overhaul inspired by visionOS, w/ glassy UI, floating elements, & immersive layouts. Siri gains advanced personalization & deeper app integration. AirPods add live translation via Translate app. Developers can attend in-person or online via Apple platforms. (9to5Mac)
- Google unveiled TxGemma, a suite of open models enhancing therapeutic development by leveraging AI. Built on Gemma 2, TxGemma predicts therapeutic properties, clinical trial outcomes, & molecule toxicity. Models are available in 2B, 9B, & 27B sizes, excelling in classification, regression, & generation tasks. TxGemma-Chat adds conversational capabilities for deeper insights, aiding researchers in drug discovery. (Google Developers Blog)
- Ant Group used Chinese-made semiconductors to train AI models, reducing costs by 20%. This approach, using Mixture of Experts, achieved results similar to Nvidia’s H800 chips, marking a step in China’s AI self-reliance amid trade tensions. (Bloomberg)
- Korean AI chip startup FuriosaAI rejected Meta’s $800mn acquisition offer, opting to remain independent. Founded in 2017, FuriosaAI develops AI inference chips like RNGD, competing w/ Nvidia. Meta sought to expand its AI chip capabilities amid $65bn AI investments. FuriosaAI plans to close an extended Series C funding round & pursue an IPO. Its chips are sampled by LG AI Research & Saudi Aramco. (Bloomberg)
Audio/Music/Podcast
- Anthropic won an early round in a copyright lawsuit filed by music publishers UMG, Concord & ABKCO, who alleged Anthropic used lyrics from 500+ songs by artists like Beyoncé & Rolling Stones w/o permission to train its AI chatbot Claude. The US District Judge Eumi Lee rejected publishers’ bid for a preliminary injunction, citing lack of evidence of irreparable harm & unsettled fair use issues. (Reuters)
Broadcast/Cable Networks
- Comcast & YES Network face a contract dispute, risking a blackout of Yankees games for Xfinity subscribers in New Jersey & Hudson Valley. Comcast plans to move YES to a higher-priced tier, opposed by YES due to potential rev loss. NY Gov. Hochul urged resolution to avoid fan impact. Fans may opt for the Gotham Sports app ($24.99/month) for YES access. Talks continue as Opening Day nears. (Sportico)
- ProSiebenSat.1 has sold its minority stake in Urban Sports Club to Wellhub as part of Wellhub’s acquisition of the European sports & wellness platform. ProSiebenSat.1 invested in Urban Sports Club in 2021 via SevenGrowth’s media-for-equity program. The sale strengthens ProSiebenSat.1’s financial base, reducing net debt by €250mn, and supports its focus on entertainment biz. (Advanced Television)
- Bell Media has acquired a majority stake in Sphere Abacus, a UK-based distributor, through parent co Sphere Media International. Sphere Abacus will now be the primary distributor of Bell Media’s owned distribution rights, expanding its catalog to 5,500+ hrs of premium content. The deal aims to enhance Canadian content’s global reach & accelerate Sphere Abacus’s international expansion in content acquisition & exploitation. (Advanced Television)
- Cable TV networks face potential annual losses of $7bn due to a proposed ban on gambling ads, a major revenue source. The ban, driven by concerns over addiction and societal impact, could disrupt ad mkts and force networks to seek alternative revenue streams. Industry experts predict increased reliance on subscription fees and partnerships to offset losses, reshaping the cable TV biz landscape. (Cord Cutters News)
Cable/Pay-TV/Wireless
- The US Supreme Court is reviewing the FCC’s Universal Service Fund, which collects ~$9bn annually from telecom cos to expand phone & broadband svs for low-income & rural areas. Critics argue the fund violates the non-delegation doctrine, as Congress gave FCC open-ended authority. The 5th Circuit deemed the fund unconstitutional in 2024, citing FCC’s subdelegation to a private co. Decision expected by late Jun. (Reuters)
- China Telecom reported an 8.4% increase in net profit for 2024, reaching 33.01 billion yuan, driven by growth in mobile and industrial digitalization services. The company now serves over 425 million mobile subscribers, with 5G users making up a significant portion. Revenue from industrial digitalization grew by 5.5%, while smart home services saw a 16.8% increase. China Telecom also expanded its international presence, focusing on Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. (Telecompaper)
- India’s 5G subscriptions are projected to reach 1bn by 2030, driven by affordable smartphones, competitive pricing, and rapid network expansion by telcos like Jio & Airtel. Currently, India has ~250mn 5G users, with 5G covering 90% of the population. The govt’s Digital India initiative & private investments are accelerating adoption. 5G is expected to contribute $455bn to India’s economy by 2040. (TelecomTalk)
- Dutch mobile svs rev grew 4.3% to €4.2bn in 2024, up from 3.5% in 2023. Growth was driven by inflation-related price adjustments, increased business & retail postpaid SIMs, and a shift to larger data bundles. All mobile operators benefitted, with further growth of 3.3% forecasted for 2025, reaching ~€4.37bn. Challenges include ARPU pressure due to declining inflation & 5G investment demands. (Telecompaper)
- Telkom South Africa has launched its MVNO platform, targeting the growing market valued at R83.6bn. Telkom aims to simplify MVNO entry w/ scalable solutions, enabling brands to create unique mobile svs. The MVNO sector has grown 51% YoY, reaching 4.3mn users by 2023, driven by consumer affinity for niche brands. (Telecompaper)
- Nokia’s MBiT 2025 report highlights India’s rapid 5G adoption, w/ subscribers expected to grow from 290mn (2024) to 770mn (2028). Avg monthly 5G data usage reached 40GB by Dec 2024, w/ 5G traffic surpassing 4G by Q1 2026. 5G Advanced & AI-driven 6G advancements are set to expand use cases. Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is driving data growth, w/ 5G FWA users consuming 12x more data than mobile users. (Telecom Talk)
- Singapore’s mobile svs rev is projected to reach $2bn by 2029, w/ a CAGR of 0.8% (2024-2029). Mobile voice svs rev will decline at a 5.4% CAGR due to OTT-based communication platforms, while mobile data svs rev will grow at a 5.2% CAGR driven by 5G adoption. By 2029, 5G subscriptions will account for 90% of total mobile subscriptions. (Advanced Television)
- Juniper Research forecasts 5G roaming spend to reach $10. 8bn by 2028, surpassing 4G for the first time. Despite 5G’s 2019 launch, complex architectures and agreements have slowed deployment. Operators face challenges in efficiently managing roaming connections, leading to revenue leakage. Implementing 5G standalone networks with advanced technologies like SEPP is recommended to maximize revenue and compete with emerging alternatives like travel eSIMs. (Advanced Television)
- India reached 250mn 5G subscribers by Feb 2025, marking rapid adoption since its Oct 2022 launch. Telecom operators deployed 469K 5G base stations nationwide, achieving 99.6% district coverage. Reliance Jio & Airtel completed nationwide rollouts in 2024, while Vodafone Idea began commercial 5G svs in Mumbai on Mar 21. Nokia projects 5G subscribers to grow to 770mn by 2028, driven by smartphone penetration & network expansion. (Telecompaper)
- Vivendi reduced its stake in Telecom Italia from 23.8% to 18.4% as of Mar.18, aligning w/ its strategy to divest non-strategic holdings. CEO Arnaud de Puyfontaine confirmed plans to exit TIM entirely when favorable terms arise. Vivendi first invested in TIM in 2015 but faced clashes over leadership & strategy, incl. opposing TIM’s fixed network asset sale in 2023. Potential buyers include CVC Capital Partners, Bain Capital, & Apax Partners. (Telecompaper)
Crypto/Blockchain/web3/NFTs
- Congress repealed a regulation requiring decentralized crypto platforms to report user transactions to the IRS, saving the crypto industry ~$4bn in taxes. Critics argue this stifles tax compliance & innovation. The Senate voted 70-28 w/ bipartisan support. The IRS is now barred from implementing similar rules, impacting tax revenue by $4.5bn over a decade. (Yahoo Finance)
- The crypto industry faced its worst quarter in history, with $1.6bn lost to hacks and scams in early 2025, an 8x increase from the same period in 2024. February alone accounted for $1.53 billion of the losses, primarily due to a $1.46 billion hack on Bybit exchange. Centralized finance (CeFi) platforms were the most affected, while BNB Chain and Ethereum were the top targets among blockchains. (The Block)
- Paul Atkins, Trump’s SEC chair nominee, has pledged to prioritize clear and principled crypto regulations. During his Senate Banking Committee hearing, he emphasized the need for coherent guidelines to reduce market uncertainty and foster innovation. Atkins, a former SEC Commissioner, plans to collaborate with Congress and fellow Commissioners to establish a firm regulatory foundation for digital assets. Critics, however, have raised concerns about his financial ties to the crypto industry. (TheStreet)
- GameStop plans to raise $1.3bn via convertible bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases, aligning w/ its new investment policy. The bonds, due 2030, will not bear interest or accrete principal. Investors are cautious due to potential share dilution & crypto volatility. GameStop aims to diversify assets while navigating declining rev & rising costs, reflecting its strategic pivot under CEO Ryan Cohen. (Yahoo Finance)
- Young people in the UK are increasingly favoring crypto over traditional stocks, driven by accessibility and potential high returns. The FCA has raised concerns about the risks, as many under-35s choose crypto as their first investment. The trend reflects a shift in financial behavior, with younger investors leveraging tech platforms for alternative assets. The FCA plans to enhance regulations and promote mainstream investments to address these challenges. (MSN)
- Trump Media’s shares surged 9% after-hours on March 24th following an ETF deal w/Crypto. com. The ETFs, under the Truth.Fi brand, will focus on digital assets & “Made in America” securities, pending regulatory approval. Crypto.com will handle tech, custody & supply. (NBC New York)
Cybersecurity/Security
- The Pentagon has issued a warning about Signal’s vulnerability to Russian hackers exploiting its “linked devices” feature. Hackers use phishing attacks to embed malicious QR codes, granting access to encrypted chats. Signal has implemented safeguards, but the incident highlights risks in secure communication platforms. The advisory follows a national security blunder involving leaked military plans on Signal. (Engadget)
eCommerce/Social Commerce/Retail
- Walmex, Walmart’s Mexico unit, announced a $6bn investment for 2025 to open new stores & two distribution centers, creating 5,500 direct jobs. This marks a significant increase from 2024’s $2bn spending. CEO Ignacio Caride revealed the plan during President Claudia Sheinbaum’s press conference on Mar 27. The investment aims to boost local employment & infrastructure. (Reuters)
- UK retail sales rose +1% in Feb 2025, driven by non-food stores, marking the highest level since Jul 2022. Household goods stores saw a +6.8% rise, the largest since Apr 2021, while clothing sales rebounded w/ discounts. Food store sales fell -2% after Jan.’s surge. Online spending grew 3.3% MoM, reflecting evolving consumer habits. Retailers remain cautious amid inflation & wage cost changes. (Retail Gazette)
- TikTok Shop is expanding its e-commerce operations to France, Germany, and Italy, aiming to replicate its UK success. This move comes as TikTok faces uncertainty in the US due to regulatory challenges. The platform is onboarding local merchants and partnering with major brands like Carrefour and AboutYou. TikTok Shop’s strategy includes leveraging engaging content and integrated shopping features to attract users and drive sales. (Reuters)
- H&M reported weaker-than-expected Q1 FY25 earnings, with sales rising 2% in local currencies to 55. 33 billion Swedish krona ($5.5 billion), slightly below analysts’ forecast of 55.86 billion. Operating profit fell to 1.2 billion krona, missing the expected 1.9 billion. The company cited slow consumer spending and inflationary pressures as key challenges. (CNBC)
- Chewy’s Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, with EPS at $0. 28 (vs. $0.20 est.) and revenue at $3.25bn (vs. $3.20bn est.), marking a 15% YoY growth. The pet e-commerce Co’s stock rose following the report, and analysts highlighted Chewy’s ability to adapt to market trends and maintain customer loyalty as key drivers of its success. (MarketWatch)
- Retailers are adapting to shifting trade policies as new tariffs disrupt supply chains and increase costs. Advanced tech like AI and predictive modeling helps mitigate risks by automating sourcing decisions, analyzing tariff impacts, and optimizing pricing. Strategies include nearshoring, diversifying suppliers, and leveraging low-tariff regions. (Forbes)
- Walmart+ members now enjoy free access to Apple Music for 5 months and Apple Fitness+ for 4 months, adding to existing perks like Paramount+. These benefits include ad-free music streaming and guided workouts, enhancing the membership’s value. Members can redeem offers via the Walmart+ hub on the app or website. Walmart+ costs $12.95/month or $98/yr, with a 30-day free trial available. (Cord Cutters News)
- Whole Foods Market has partnered w/ VPS to install canopies at curbside pickup locations in Portland(ME), Omaha(NE), & Austin(TX), enhancing customer convenience, employee protection, & wayfinding. Feb 2025 pickup sales rose 19% y/y to ~$4.1bn. VPS, w/ 30+yrs experience, provides durable, stylish solutions, reinforcing Whole Foods’ commitment to exceptional shopping experiences. (Progressive Grocer)
- Puma has launched its largest global campaign, “Go Wild,” increasing its marketing spend by 40% in 2025 to redefine its brand positioning. The campaign focuses on sport as self-expression and joy, targeting Gen Z with relatable stories of everyday runners. This shift aims to differentiate Puma from rivals like Nike, which emphasize performance. The campaign follows disappointing sales forecasts and cost-cutting measures, including 500 job cuts. (SportsPro)
- TJX, parent Co of TJ Maxx & Marshalls, is seen as a resilient stock amid declining consumer confidence. Analysts highlight its off-price retail model, which thrives during economic uncertainty. TJX reported $56.36bn rev in FY25, w/ a 5.58% growth forecast for FY26. (CNBC)
- SHEIN’s survey reveals inflation (67%), tax hikes (43%), & tariffs (35%) as top concerns for US consumers in 2025. Price & quality remain key factors in retailer selection, w/ 80% prioritizing affordability. 72% of SHEIN customers report tight budgets, emphasizing value-driven shopping. The survey highlights economic pressures shaping consumer behavior, w/ Americans seeking accessible fashion options. (Chain Store Age)
- Lululemon is boosting its Like New resale program through events like SXSW’s “The Like New Edit,” featuring pilates classes, sauna sessions & influencer-curated collections. Customers trade gently-used items for $5-$25 store credit, w/ profits reinvested in the Fashion Climate Fund. Relaunched under Archive, the program emphasizes sustainability & quality, aiming to retain market share from third-party platforms. (Modern Retail)
- Skims acquired SKKN by Kim from Kim Kardashian & Coty, consolidating her beauty & fashion ventures under one brand. Coty sold its 20% stake, while Kardashian transferred her 80% stake. The move aligns w/ Skims’ expansion into beauty, skincare, & fragrance by 2026. Coty plans to use proceeds for debt reduction & innovation. Skims, valued at $4bn in 2023, aims to streamline its product offerings. (Yahoo Lifestyle)
Electric & Autonomous Vehicles
- Xiaomi has raised $5.5bn through an upsized share sale, issuing 800mn shares at HK$53.25 each, a 6.6% discount to the prior closing price. Proceeds will fund biz expansion, R&D, and general purposes, including its EV biz, which saw 2024 rev of ¥32.1bn. Xiaomi plans to deliver 350,000 EVs in 2025 and expand its Beijing factory. (Reuters)
FinTech/InsurTech/Payments
- Stripe’s rev grew 28% to $5.1bn in 2024, w/ adj free cash flow doubling to $2.2bn. Despite IPO pressure, Stripe’s valuation rebounded to $91.5bn after a tender offer for employees. (The Information)
- CLEAR & American Express have renewed their partnership for a second 1-yr term, continuing benefits for eligible AmEx Card Members. Members can receive up to $199 in annual statement credits for CLEAR Plus Membership, which offers faster airport experiences using face-first tech. (Yahoo Finance)
- Block, led by Jack Dorsey, laid off 931 employees, citing strategic shifts, performance issues, & hierarchy flattening. Cuts included 391 for strategy, 460 for performance, & 80 managers. Dorsey denied financial motives or AI replacement, emphasizing raising standards & faster action. 748 open roles were closed, except critical ones. This follows Jan 2024 layoffs of ~1,000 staff. (TechCrunch)
- eToro filed for an IPO, revealing 2024 rev of $12. 6bn, up from $3.89bn in 2023, w/ net income rising to $192mn from $15.3mn. 96% of rev came from crypto, boosted by favorable policies. The IPO aims to list on Nasdaq under “ETOR.” eToro’s 38mn users span 75 countries, focusing on social investing. The Co previously canceled a $10.4bn SPAC deal in 2022. (Bloomberg)
HealthTech/Wellness
- 23andMe filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on to facilitate its sale, citing financial struggles since its 2021 IPO. CEO Anne Wojcicki resigned, replaced by CFO Joe Selsavage as interim CEO. The Co secured $35mn DIP financing to sustain operations during the sale process. California AG urged users to delete genetic data amid privacy concerns. (Reuters)
Last Mile Transportation/Delivery
- Instacart has launched two new features, Store View and Second Store Check, to tackle out-of-stock issues. Store View uses AI and computer vision to analyze videos of store shelves, providing real-time inventory updates. Second Store Check allows a second shopper at a nearby store to locate unavailable items. These innovations aim to improve customer satisfaction and streamline grocery shopping. (The Verge)
- Grab, a Singapore-based ride-hailing & food delivery co, is seeking a $2bn loan to support its potential acquisition of Indonesia’s GoTo. The bridge loan, w/ a tenor of ~12 months, is in early talks w/ banks. Grab may consider bond/equity take-out post-loan approval. GoTo, operating Gojek, denied any agreement on the merger. Competition concerns remain over the merger of the Cos. (Reuters)
- Activist investor Engine Capital has nominated 2 director candidates to Lyft’s board, aiming to address its declining stock price and dual-class share structure. Engine, holding a $50mn stake, has pushed for strategic changes and improved governance. Lyft’s stock has dropped 37.4% in the past yr, and the boardroom battle highlights investor concerns over its competitive positioning and future strategy. (Reuters)
Live Entertainment/Theme Parks/Concerts/Experiential
- The UK’s CMA is consulting Ticketmaster on changes to ticket labeling & pricing info after concerns over Oasis concert ticket sales. Issues include misleading “platinum” ticket labels priced ~2.5x higher w/o added benefits & unclear standing ticket categories. CMA seeks improved transparency to ensure fans make informed decisions. Ticketmaster has made changes but CMA finds them insufficient. (Markets Insider)
M&A
- Startup acquisitions have surged to $55bn in Q1 2025, breaking records. Notable deals include Google’s $32bn acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz, SoftBank’s $6.5bn purchase of Ampere Computing, and PepsiCo’s $2bn acquisition of soda startup Poppi. The trend reflects renewed optimism in Silicon Valley, with AI-related acquisitions leading the charge. Analysts predict continued growth in venture-backed M&A activity. (Bloomberg)
Macro Updates
- The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.4% in Q1 2025, driven by higher net exports and robust consumer spending. This growth exceeded analysts’ expectations of 2.1%, reflecting resilience despite global economic uncertainties. The trade balance improved as exports surged, while imports declined slightly. Economists remain cautiously optimistic about sustained growth amid inflationary pressures. (Bloomberg)
- Trump plans to limit exceptions in his tariff push, hinting at a major announcement on April 2. The reciprocal duties aim to counter global trading partners imposing tariffs on US goods. While Trump may offer exemptions, he emphasizes minimal exceptions. This move has caused confusion among investors & businesses, as countries rush to secure carveouts ahead of the announcement. (Yahoo News)
- Food inflation is expected to rise in 2025 due to supply chain disruptions, extreme weather events, and increased production costs. Key contributors include higher prices for staples like rice, wheat, and pulses, alongside elevated transportation costs. Analysts predict a significant impact on consumer spending and retail pricing, with potential policy interventions to stabilize mkts and ensure food security. (Retail Gazette)
- Trump is reportedly considering a more limited approach to his tariff plans, focusing on reciprocal tariffs targeting nations with trade barriers against the US. While he aims to minimize exceptions, the plan is expected to be less aggressive than initially proposed. The announcement, set for April 2, is being framed as a “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, aiming to generate significant revenue while addressing trade imbalances. However, the move has raised concerns about potential economic disruptions and strained relations with trading partners. (Wall Street Journal)
- A CNBC survey reveals that 60% of CFOs predict a US recession in late 2025, citing economic policy uncertainty under President Trump as a key factor. Concerns include trade policies and tariffs driving inflation, with 95% of CFOs reporting policy uncertainty impacting business decisions. Despite this, CFOs remain optimistic about their industries, though high borrowing costs and market instability pose challenges. (CNBC)
- US consumer confidence fell for the 4th consecutive month in March, hitting a 12-yr low. The Conference Board’s index dropped 7.2 points to 92.9, w/ future expectations plunging 9.6 points to 65.2, signaling recession risks. Inflation, tariffs, and labor market concerns drove pessimism, especially among older Americans. Despite this, consumer spending remains resilient, accounting for 2/3 of U.S. economic activity. (CNBC)
- India proposed removing the 6% Equalisation Levy on digital svs, including ads, effective Apr 1,2025, as part of amendments to the Finance Bill 2025. This move aims to ease trade tensions w/ the US, which had threatened reciprocal tariffs from Apr 2. The levy, introduced in 2016, targeted foreign cos like Google & Meta. (Reuters)
Regulatory
- Trump’s H-1B visa policy has created uncertainty for skilled foreign workers in the US, especially in tech. Amazon led H-1B approvals in 2025 w/ 9,265, followed by Cognizant (6,321), Google (5,364), Meta (4,844), & Microsoft (4,725). Indian cos like Infosys (8,140) & TCS (5,274) remain key players. New measures introduced in Jan. require stricter evidence from employers & increased fees. (Rest of World)
- The FCC has launched a major investigation into Chinese companies like Huawei, ZTE, and China Telecom on its “Covered List,” suspecting they may be bypassing U. S. bans by operating privately or through loopholes. Led by the new Council for National Security, the probe aims to reduce reliance on foreign adversaries, close regulatory gaps, and safeguard U.S. technology and telecommunications from cyber threats and espionage. (Engadget)
Satellite/Space
- Musk’s Starlink satellites face criticism for high long-term costs under the revamped $42bn BEAD program. While satellites offer lower initial costs, they are 53% costlier over 30yrs & twice as expensive to maintain compared to fiber. Critics argue this shift benefits Starlink but burdens rural Americans. Fiber, though pricier upfront, saves ~$15,600/household over 30yrs. (Bloomberg)
- SpaceX is developing a new Starlink dish capable of delivering gigabit internet speeds, a significant upgrade from the current 200Mbps service. Annc’d during a webinar, the dish requires new hardware & FCC approval for its V3 satellites. Targeting late-2025 rollout, SpaceX plans to prioritize biz customers. Existing users may see modest speed boosts w/o new purchases. The dish aims to rival fiber networks. (Cord Cutters News)
- Vietnam has approved SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet svs for a trial period until 2030, w/ no foreign ownership limits. The pilot program allows fixed and mobile svs, including inflight WiFi, w/ a subscriber cap of 600,000. The decision aligns w/ Vietnam’s aim to enhance connectivity and strengthen trade ties w/ the US. (Reuters)
- Italy has paused negotiations on a €1.5bn deal w/ SpaceX for Starlink satellite services, citing political controversies surrounding Elon Musk. Defense Minister Guido Crosetto stated talks shifted from technical aspects to debates about Musk. The deal aimed to secure encrypted communications for defense & diplomacy. Opposition parties criticized Musk’s involvement, questioning national security implications. (Telecompaper)
- Starlink’s global rollout faces challenges due to Elon Musk’s ties to President Trump. While Musk’s alliance eased federal contract approvals, it complicates international expansion as regulators question his reliability. SpaceX is negotiating Starlink’s entry into mkts like Turkey, Morocco, & Bangladesh, targeting 1bn new users. Despite dominance in satellite internet, political affiliations may hinder growth. (Benton Institute for Broadband & Society)
Social/Digital Media
- YouTube annc’d a change to Shorts view-counting metrics, effective Mar 3. Views will now be counted each time a Short starts playing/replays, aligning w/ TikTok & Instagram mkts. This update won’t impact creators’ earnings or YouTube Partner Program eligibility. (TechCrunch)
- Reddit has expanded its Conversation Ads, allowing marketers to place ads deeper into comment sections, enhancing engagement w/ high-intent users. Updates include larger media space, improved placement, & partnerships w/ DoubleVerify & IAS for ad verification. This move aligns w/ Reddit’s strategy to monetize its 101mn daily active users while offering precise targeting tools. (Social Media Today)
- Instagram has introduced a 2x speed feature for Reels, mirroring TikTok’s playback option. Users can long-press on the screen’s edges to activate faster playback, enhancing content consumption efficiency. (TechCrunch)
- X is set to report its first annual ad rev growth since Musk’s 2022 acquisition, w/ US sales projected to rise +17. 5% to $1.31bn in 2025 & global sales up +16.5% to $2.26bn. eMarketer attributes growth to small & medium biz adoption & fear-driven spending amid legal concerns. Despite gains, X’s ad biz remains smaller than pre-acquisition levels, w/ 2021 rev at $4.51bn. Tariffs & economic uncertainty continue to impact mkts. (CNBC)
- Italy has issued VAT tax demands to Meta, X, and LinkedIn, claiming €887. 6mn, €12.5mn, and €140mn respectively for 2015-2016. Authorities argue user registrations on these platforms are taxable transactions as they exchange personal data for access. Meta disputes this, stating compliance w/ EU laws. The case could impact EU-wide VAT policies and tech biz models, potentially reshaping the industry. (Social Media Today)
- Trump hinted at reducing tariffs on China to secure a TikTok deal, requiring ByteDance to divest its US operations by Apr 5 or face a ban. He acknowledged China’s role in approving the sale, suggesting a tariff reduction as leverage. The move aims to address national security concerns over TikTok’s Chinese ownership, with the White House deeply involved in negotiations. (Reuters)
- Utah has passed the App Store Accountability Act, requiring Apple & Google to verify user ages for app store accounts. For users under 18, accounts must link to a parent’s account, w/ parental consent for in-app purchases. The law aims to protect minors but raises privacy concerns over sensitive data collection. It may face legal challenges before its May 7 implementation. (CNBC)
- TikTok’s H2 2024 Transparency Report highlights its enforcement actions under the EU Code of Practice. It removed 36,740 political ads, 10mn fake accounts, and 460mn fake likes. TikTok also deleted 51,618 synthetic media videos violating AI content rules. It implemented C2PA Content Credentials for labeling AI-generated content and strengthened election integrity measures. (Social Media Today)
- TikTok has expanded its AI-powered Smart+ campaigns to include website and app conversions, enhancing automated ad creation and targeting. Updates include GMV Max campaigns w/ affiliate content and LIVE formats, search ads in the Shop tab, and Symphony AI tools for ad creation. These features aim to boost e-commerce efficiency and align w/ TikTok’s success in in-app sales in China. (Social Media Today)
- Meta may expand its ad-free subscription model to the UK after settling a privacy case w/ Tanya O’Carroll, who objected to her data being used for ad targeting. The settlement, supported by the ICO, highlights users’ rights under GDPR to opt out of direct marketing. Meta’s ad-free subscription, already available in the EU, may cost ~£5/month. (Social Media Today)
- The EU plans to fine Meta up to $1bn for breaching the Digital Markets Act (DMA), which enforces fair competition among tech giants. Meta allegedly violated the DMA by forcing users into a “pay or consent” model for ads on Facebook & Instagram. The European Commission may also issue a cease-and-desist notice. This follows a $1.3bn fine in 2023 for data privacy violations, highlighting ongoing tensions between Meta & EU regulators. (New York Post)
- White House-led talks center on U. S. investors increasing stakes in ByteDance to spin off TikTok’s U.S. operations, reducing Chinese ownership below 20% to avoid a ban. Susquehanna, General Atlantic, and KKR are involved, with Oracle managing U.S. user data. Discussions continue with no official comments from key parties. (USA Today)
Software
- Bain Capital has acquired a majority stake in Namirial SpA from Ambienta, valuing the Italian software firm at €1. 1bn ($1.2bn). Namirial specializes in digital transaction management, offering e-signature workflows, digital identity orchestration & electronic archiving. The deal supports Namirial’s global expansion, leveraging Bain’s expertise to enhance product offerings & consolidate its leadership in the sector. (MSN)
Sports/Sports Betting
- Underdog, a US-based sports gaming co, raised $70mn in Series C funding led by Spark Capital, valuing the co at $1.23bn pre-money. The funding, expected to exceed $100mn, will support product dev & workforce expansion. Underdog, founded in 2020, integrates fantasy games, betting mkts & media content, serving ~4mn customers. (Gambling Insider)
- The Pohlad family is seeking at least $1.7bn for the Minnesota Twins, motivated by the franchise’s $425mn debt and declining attendance. Despite interest, no sale is imminent after Justin Ishbia withdrew to focus on the White Sox. Joe Pohlad, overseeing operations since Nov 2022, prefers retaining control. The Twins, valued at $1.46bn by Forbes in 2024, face challenges like TV deal collapse and market size. (MLB Trade Rumors)
- ESPN is in advanced talks to acquire NFL Media assets, incl. NFL Network, RedZone, & NFL+, for $2bn. The deal may include the NFL taking an equity stake in ESPN. ESPN’s standalone streaming svs, launching fall 2025, will bundle linear channels, ESPN+, & interactive features like sports betting. Adding NFL Media could elevate its portfolio, offering exclusive games & whip-around Sunday action. (Cord Cutters News)
Tech Hardware
- TSMC plans a $165bn US expansion, adding 3 fabs, 2 packaging facilities, and an R&D center in Arizona. This move, driven by AI demand, aims to meet 40-50% of U.S. chip needs by 2030. Critics highlight high costs, w/ U.S. construction 4-5x pricier than Taiwan. Despite challenges, TSMC seeks to balance U.S. growth w/ Taiwan’s tech leadership, ensuring innovation remains centered in Taiwan. (Nikkei Asia)
- Google TV is set for a significant update, featuring a vibrant blue color scheme replacing the current gray accents, offering a modern and sleek interface. Functional enhancements include a “Hot and New Tab” for trending content and a search page update to display recent queries. These changes aim to improve user experience and align with Google’s broader design evolution. The rollout date is yet to be confirmed. (Cord Cutters News)
Towers/Fiber
- Telus is exploring the sale of a minority stake in its wireless tower portfolio to strengthen its balance sheet. The company plans to use 100% of the proceeds to reduce debt, aligning with its goal of achieving a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3x by 2027. Telus has engaged advisors to evaluate this monetization strategy, which could involve selling up to 49.9% of its 3,000 towers. Analysts estimate the stake could generate between $500 million and $1.5 billion. (Telecompaper)
- Iliad’s revenue growth eased to 5% in Q4, as customer gains slowed in France. The French telecom operator’s quarterly revenue grew by 5%, marking a slowdown compared to previous growth rates. Despite strong performance in international markets, Iliad faced challenges in France, where the market showed signs of saturation. The slowdown in customer acquisitions reflected a more competitive landscape in France, with the company focusing on enhancing its existing customer base (Telecompaper)
- CityFibre has acquired Connexin’s full fibre infrastructure, expanding its footprint by ~185,000 premises across Hull & East Riding. The deal includes Connexin’s Project Gigabit contract to deliver broadband to 34,000 hard-to-reach premises in Nottinghamshire & West Lincolnshire. Connexin will now focus on IoT, including LoRaWAN networks & smart water meters. (Advanced Television)
- Crown Castle terminated CEO Steven Moskowitz after selling fiber assets for $8. 5bn to EQT Active Core & Zayo. Dan Schlanger, CFO, is interim CEO while the board searches for a successor. Moskowitz’s termination wasn’t due to policy or financial disagreements. (Wall Street Journal)
- NTT, NTT DOCOMO & NEC successfully demonstrated distributed MIMO tech for 6G in cars & trains, ensuring stable high-frequency communication even at high speeds. The system uses rapid antenna switching & timing-compensation tech to mitigate signal degradation. This innovation supports high-capacity wireless communication for autonomous vehicles & passenger data svs, advancing 6G adoption. (Telecompaper)
Video Games/Interactive Entertainment
- Nintendo is introducing Virtual Game Cards to enhance cross-device portability for digital games, aligning with the upcoming Switch 2 launch. This feature allows users to transfer games between devices via local connection and share them within a Nintendo Family Group for up to 14 days. Virtual Game Cards aim to make digital games as flexible as physical ones, launching in late April. (TechCrunch)
- Amazon Luna has partnered with EA in a multi-year deal to bring popular games like Star Wars Jedi: Survivor, Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order, and Dead Space to its cloud gaming service. Luna+ subscribers can access these titles immediately, with more EA Sports games expected soon. This collaboration aims to expand Luna’s reach, now available in 14 countries, including Sweden, Portugal, Belgium, and Luxembourg. (VentureBeat)
- Warner Bros has canceled a planned expansion and Definitive Edition for Hogwarts Legacy as part of its ongoing restructuring efforts. Despite the game’s massive success, selling over 34mn copies, the expansion was deemed insufficient in content to justify its price. The company is now focusing on a sequel, which remains a top priority. This decision follows financial challenges and the closure of several Warner Bros. studios. (Bloomberg)
- Discord, a social communications platform, is collaborating w/ Goldman Sachs & JPMorgan for a potential IPO, possibly in 2025. Founded in 2015, Discord’s rev quadrupled to $600mn (2020-2024), driven by Nitro subscriptions & gaming ads. The co rejected a $12bn Microsoft offer in 2021. Discord aims to expand its gaming ecosystem & was valued at $14.7bn in 2021. (Yahoo Finance)
- Nintendo shares surged by 6. 4% in Tokyo after Goldman Sachs reinstated coverage w/ a buy rating and a 12-month price target of ¥13,600. The upcoming Switch 2 console, set for Apr.2 unveiling, is expected to unlock dormant users and drive active consoles to new highs. Analysts predict new software titles will accompany the release, boosting sales and earnings growth from FY2026. (Bloomberg)
Video Streaming
- MLB TV faced widespread outages on Opening Day, frustrating fans eager to watch games. Over 22,000 users reported playback/network errors, likely due to a surge in new subscribers from T-Mobile’s free season offer. Fans criticized MLB’s handling of consumer experience, sharing memes & complaints on social media. MLB has yet to address the issue. (Awful Announcing)
- Cord cutters are reducing the number of streaming services they pay for, with 51.7% of surveyed users now subscribing to three or fewer services. Rising costs and economic pressures have led many to rotate subscriptions, binge-watch content, and switch platforms to save money. Live TV streaming services and on-demand platforms like Disney+ have reported subscriber losses due to this trend. (Cord Cutters News)
- Cord cutters in the U.S. pay an average of $69 per month for four streaming services, less than half the $147 monthly cost of cable TV. However, streaming prices have risen by 13% year-over-year, with ad-supported tiers becoming more popular. Younger viewers are opting for cheaper or free options, and 39% of users canceled at least one subscription in the last six months. (Cord Cutters News)
- Netflix has introduced HDR10+ streaming for AV1-enabled devices, enhancing picture quality with dynamic metadata for better contrast and vibrant colors. This feature is available to Premium subscribers and aims to optimize streaming efficiency while expanding HDR10+ content across its library by the end of 2025. (Cord Cutters News)
- YouTube led Nielsen’s Feb 2025 Media Distributor Gauge w/ 11.6% of TV use, surpassing Disney (10%) for the top spot. This marks YouTube’s best share to date & its 2nd time leading since Nov.2023 tracking began. Growth was driven by older audiences (50+), who contributed 36% of TV viewing. FOX ranked 3rd (8.3%), boosted by Super Bowl viewership. Disney dropped 2 share points, losing its top position for the 3rd time. (Hollywood Reporter)
- Fubo has discontinued its Essentials Plan, a budget-friendly package launched in Dec 2024, to focus on sports-heavy packages. The Essentials Plan excluded RSNs, saving subscribers $12-$15/month. Existing subscribers can retain the plan, but new users must choose Pro ($84.99/month) or Elite ($94.99/month) plans, both including RSNs. (Cord Cutters News)
- By 2028, 76% of US homes are expected to cut the cord, driven by rising OTT subscription costs (+14% in 2024) & ad-based plans reducing costs by 42%. OTT rev grew 18% in 2024 to $69.5bn, surpassing traditional TV subscriptions. Cable, telecom & satellite TV accounts fell by 6.5mn in 2024, w/ TV subscriptions dropping 12%. Broadband svs added 1.7mn accounts, w/ rev up 5% to $95bn. Analysts forecast OTT rev to grow 17% in 2025, reaching $81.5bn. (SmartBrief)
- Apple TV+ saw a surge in signups after joining Amazon Prime Video Channels in Oct 2024. US subscriptions jumped from 1.44mn in Sept. to ~3mn in Jan 2025, w/ signups up 99% YoY in Feb. Despite growth, Apple TV+ faces challenges like high churn rates and $1bn in annual losses. The platform spends ~$5bn/yr on content but cut back by $500mn last yr. (StreamTV Insider)
