LT Weekly: Jul 11, 2025

It was a downer at the start of the week with WPP surprising the Street with a H1 trading update that signaled much worse than expected trends in Q2 (especially in June) due to a “challenging” trading environment with macro pressures “intensifying” and lower than expected net new business. These trends were also guided to persist in H2. As such, mgmt slashed revenue and margin guidance for H1 and for the full year 2025 (net new business losses and the macro deterioration contributed roughly the same to the negative revision). Also, on the heels of this trading update, the Co announced that CEO Mark Read will step down at the start of September and will be replaced by Cindy Rose. She will join from Microsoft, where she has been the COO, Global Enterprise, but has held numerous senior leadership positions in her last 9 years there, amongst other appointments.

All in all, the picture looks a bit cloudy for the ad agencies but we’ll certainly hear more from the other large players during the upcoming earnings cycle, and WPP mgmt will provide additional guidance when it reports its 1H25 results on August 7^th.

In the meantime, see more details below on WPP’s H1 trading update this week.

-> WPP share fell a sharp -18% in reaction to the statement and closed the week down -23%…it also dragged down the rest of the sector with IPG, OMC and Publicis all down -3%, -3, and -4% this week; All the major ad agencies have struggled YTD but WPP has trailed the group (IPG -11%, OMC -15%, Publicis -2%, and WPP -46%)

WPP Pre-Announces Disappointing H1 Trends Due To A “Challenging” Trading Environment W/ Macro Pressures “Intensifying” And Lower Net New Business

• Cut H1 revs guidance: Expects like-for-like revs less pass-through costs to decline by -4.2% to -4.5%, with a decline of -5.5% to -6.0% in Q2
  • Stripping out one-off factors, the underlying run rate like-for-like would be closer to -3.6% to – 3.9% in H1, and -4.5% to -5% in Q2; In absolute terms, revenue less pass-through costs is projected at ~£5bn

• Cut H1 op profit margins: Expects headline op profit in the range of £400-425mn, which is consistent w/ a margin decline of 280-330 bps y/y (ex-FX) to 8-8.5%
  • Drivers include the lower rev less pass-through costs plus severance action at WPP Media

• Cut FY 2025 outlook…given “the expectation of continued macro uncertainty weighing on client spend and weaker net new business than originally anticipated”
  • Cut 2025 like for like revenue less pass-through costs guidance to -3% to -5%, from flat to -2%
  • Cut headline op margin y/y decline guidance to 50- 175bps (ex- FX), vs the previous ~flat
    • Restructuring actions help margins but plan to continue to invest

• What happened?
  • Mgmt cites a “challenging” trading environment w/ macro pressures “intensifying” and lower net new business
  • Performance in June was worse than anticipated and the Co believes these trends from H1 will continue into H2
  • The Co saw a deterioration of performance as Q2 progressed
    • Saw a greater degree of caution on client spending than expected (esp in CPG)
    • Saw weaker net new business
    • The Co has seen this weakness not just from sectors impacted by tariffs… “We’ve just seen more caution from clients”
    • This is exacerbated by 1-time factors which impacted WPP Media’s performance in the qtr
  • The Co indicated that “the latest convergence tracker shows that new business opportunities in media y/y are running about a third of the level in 2025 as they were in 2024”

• Expect higher severance in H1: H1 total severance costs will be ~£100mn, which is an incremental ~£65mn or 120bpy/y

• Bridging the ORIGINAL vs NEW guidance –
  • ORIGINAL guidance…anticipated a headwind from net new business in H1, and a tailwind in H2, leaving the full-year impact broadly neutral
    • This reflected known wins and losses at that time & an expectation on the volume of new business and WPP’s win rate
  • NEW guidance…anticipates a negative impact from net new business for the year as a whole, reflecting “incremental client losses and a lower level of new business conversion”: About half of the delta is from net new business and half is from the weaker macro
    • Mgmt ests the impact to be ~100- 150bp
    • This includes some “pull-forward” of client losses which they would have originally expected to impact 2026
    • The impact of the macro & current client spending has been more pronounced in Q2 than anticipated and more than had been assumed at the bottom end of their original guidance

• What’s the color on regions and segments?
  • Regionally: Saw a q/q deterioration in N. Amer which is expected to be down lsd% across H1
    • Other regions “have remained weak despite an easing comparative”
  • Segments: Expect the Global Integrated Agencies business growth to decline from -2.8% in Q1 to a mid-sd% decline in Q2 (H1 decline mid-sd%) w/ lower client spend & net new business impacting WPP Media & Ogilvy in particular

What began as Amazon’s summer sales event has evolved into a full-blown retail moment across the industry. Amazon’s Prime Day, which runs through the end of today (Friday) was extended to four days this year, up from two in prior years. But Amazon is not alone. Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Costco, and Kohl’s are all running major sales this week, many of which are longer than their respective events held last year. Adobe estimates that US consumers will spend nearly $24bn online across all retailers by the time all the shopping events wrap up, roughly equivalent to two Black Fridays.

Some early data points have already emerged. Adobe reported a +9.9% y/y increase in US online sales on July 8, the first day of Prime Day, making it the biggest e-commerce day of the year so far. However, 3P data from Momentum Commerce suggested that Amazon-specific Prime Day declined -41% y/y on the first day of the event, likely due to the longer shopping window. Amazon pushed back on those figures, calling them inaccurate.

More complete numbers will come into focus after the weekend once all major events conclude and final sales are tallied. In the meantime, see below for the initial updates and read throughs.

Prime Day Is Expected To Spark A Surge In Online Sales, Per Adobe (link)

• Initial estimates – Adobes estimates that the Prime Day event (running from July 8-11) will drive $23.8bn in online spend across US retailors, up +24.8% y/y or +$9.6bn y/y (link)
  • This is approx. equivalent to two Black Fridays, which drove $10.8bn in online spend during the 2024 holiday shopping season

• Shopping on mobile devices is set to hit an all-time high, driving 52.5% of online sales (vs desktop shopping) at $12.5bn
  • This continues to be a growth driver for US retailers, with more impulse shopping happening on mobile devices

• Discounts are expected to remain at historically high levels, as overall, discounts across US retailers will be in the range of 10%-24% (off listed price)
  • Apparel expected to have the biggest deals at 24% (vs 20% last year)
  • Electronics at 22% (vs 23%)
  • Televisions at 17% (vs 16%)
  • Appliances at 16% (vs 14%)
  • Toys at 15% (vs 15%)
  • Furniture at 14% (vs 16%)
  • Computers at 12% (vs 11%)
  • Sporting goods at 10% (vs 11%)

• Consumers are expected to “trade up” to higher-ticket items, driven by strong discounts; The share of the most expensive goods is set to increase by 18% (vs to avg levels YTD)
  • In electronics, the share of the most expensive goods is expected to rise by a significant 52%
  • Sporting goods, up 32%
  • Appliances, up 29%
  • Furniture, up 28%
  • Toys, up 18%
  • Personal care, up 15%
  • Apparel, up 9%
  • Categories with a drop include home and garden (down 4%) and grocery (down 6%), as consumers embrace lower-priced products

• Consumers are getting a head start on back-to-school shopping (which generally begins in mid-August to early-September)
  • Categories expected to see the biggest boost are backpacks & lunchboxes (up 225% compared to the daily average in June 2025), kid’s apparel (up 200%), and general school/office supplies (up 180%)
  • Shopping for college essentials is also expected to see strong growth, including in twin/full mattresses & toppers (up 55%), bedroom/bathroom linens (up 49%), microwaves (up 75%), headphones & speakers (up 150%), and computers (up 140%)

• Traffic from genAI sources is expected to increase by +3,200% y/y
  • Material acceleration from the 2024 holiday shopping season (between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2024), when traffic from genAI sources increased by 1,300% y/y
  • In a recent Adobe survey of 5k US consumers, the shopping tasks respondents said they used genAI for include conducting research (per 55% of respondents), receiving product recommendations (47%), seeking deals (43%), getting present ideas (35%), finding unique products (35%) and creating shopping lists (33%)

• Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage is expected to see a sligh uptick
  • Expects BNPL to drive between $1.8bn-$1.9bn of overall online spend, which represents an 8% share, up from 7.6% last yr

• Strong spending during the Prime Day event will be driven by net-new demand, as opposed to higher prices
  • E-commerce prices have fallen for 33 months, down -2.01% y/y in May 2025, per the Adobe Digital Price Index, which tracks online prices across 18 product categories

A Whole Host Of Retailers Followed Amazon And Are Having Big Sales Events This Week (link)

• New this year – Amazon’s annual Prime Day summer sale has been extended to 4 days, up from 2 days in previous years and will run from July 8-11
  • Amazon said it doubled the length of the annual sale b/c shoppers have indicated they wanted more time to navigate the deals

• Walmart Deals 2025 will run from July 7-13
  • Walmart+ members got early access to the sale at 7pm ET Monday; The sale starts at midnight ET Tuesday online for all shoppers and in stores when they open
  • First time the sale will be available both in stores and online

• Target Circle Week is going from July 6-12
  • The sale started even earlier for members of the paid Target Circle 360 program
  • There will be early back-to-school and college shopping deals and the return of Target’s “Deal of the Day”

• Best Buy’s “Black Friday in July event” is running from July 7-13
  • The retailer is calling it one of its “biggest sale events of the summer”
  • The sale was three days last year, but like Amazon’s, increased in length

• Costco’s five-day sale is running from July 7-11
  • The sale is online-only and while supplies last

• Kohl’s Summer Cyber Deals runs from July 7-10
  • The sale ran for 4 days this yr (up from 2 days in 2024)
  • New daily deals were added each day in-store and online (included free shipping on all online orders)

Mixed Initial Data Points On Consumer Spend

• On Tuesday (July 8), the first day of Amazon’s Prime Day event, US online sales were up +9.9% y/y to $7.9bn – “the biggest e-commerce day so far this year” (link)
  • Also eclipsed total online spending during Thanksgiving last year, when sales on the holiday reached $6.1bn
  • Walmart’s six-day deals event also started Tuesday, while Target Circle Week kicked off on Sunday and Best Buy’ Black Friday in July event began Monday

• That said, Amazon Prime sales were down -41% y/y on the first day of Prime Day, per Momentum Commerce, which manages sales for 50 sellers on Amazon accounting for $7bn in spending on the online platform (link)
  • Why the decline? “Likely explained by consumers ‘treasure hunting’ across Amazon, adding products to cart but being slower to purchase in case new deals show up” across the longer event period, Momentum CEO and founder John Shea wrote in a LinkedIn post
  • Also found that the avg rate of discount on the first day was 21% vs 24% during Prime Day 2024

• In response, Amazon said that Momentum’s numbers are “highly inaccurate” and typical “of statements made by third-party consultancies that don’t have access to the actual data”
  • The Co is “really pleased by the engagement that we’re getting from our customers and our members,” per Amazon Prime VP Jamil Ghani

Preliminary Prime Day Stats From Numerator As Of 4pm On July 11^th (link)

• 154,807 Prime Day orders
• 52,807 households shopping
• 307,746 items purchased

• $53.34 avg order size
• $156.37 avg household spend

• Many Prime Days shoppers also shopped or planned to shop other retailer deals, including –
  • Walmart Deals (49% of shoppers)
  • Target Circle Week (37%)

Source

Per Crunchbase data this week, we got an update on global venture capital funding trends. Overall, Q2 was a strong qtr for capital funding (incr’d +11% y/y) but levels were down from the blockbuster and record setting Q1 levels. Investments into AI dominated and accounted for ~45% of all VC funding in Q2. Healthcare/BioTech and Financial Services were distant 2^nd and 3^rd in terms of sectors that VC’s funded in the period. In terms of exits, M&A was also up for the second qtr in a row, rivaling peak M&A amounts in 2021.

See more details below on what we thought was most incremental. (link)

-> Related, other data out this week pointed to at least 36 new tech unicorns being crowned thus far YTD; The full list can be found HERE

• Q2 global venture capital funding incr’d +11% y/y to $91bn but fell -20% from Q4’s $114bn (highest qtr for funding since Q3 2022)
  • The y/y increase over the last 3 qtrs has been driven by billion-dollar-plus rounds into AI research labs as well as data and infrastructure providers in the sector

• Funding in AI has been sky-high and the most active sector for VC capital in Q2 at $40bn, ~45% of total global funding in the period
  • ScaleAI: $14.3bn
  • Anduril Industries: $2.5bn
  • Thinking Machines Lab: $2bn
  • Safe Superintelligence: $2bn
  • Grammarly: $1bn
  • Anysphere: $900mn
  • Helsing: $694mn

• Other active sectors for VC funding in Q2 –
  • #2 – Healthcare & biotech companies, raising $14.8bn
  • #3 – Financial services, raising $10.8bn

• Q2 was the 2nd-strongest qtr for startup M&A dollar volume since 2021, with $50bn in reported exit value…last qtr was the strongest, at $71bn given the $32bn Google/Wiz deal
  • OpenAI was the most-active & largest acquirer by amount in Q2, buying 4 companies including Jony Ive’s io for $6bn & Windsurf for $3bn
  • 18 Cos were acq’d for $1bn+ in Q2
  • ~50% were acquired by public companies, and 3 by PE firms

• Funding trend by stage…late stage drove y/y gains in Q2
  • Late-stage Cos: Funding reached $55bn, +55% y/y (but down q/q by close to a third)
  • Early-stage Cos: Funding was flat q/q in Q2 reaching $26bn across 1,600 Cos with the largest rounds at this stage peaking around $220mn
  • Seed Cos: Funding reached $10.3bn in Q2
    • Thinking Machines raised 20% of that w/ a $2bn seed round that marked the largest on record at that stage
    • Excluding the Thinking Machines’ round, seed funding would have been flat q/q and down y/y

• In total, $205bn was raised via VC in H1, up +32% y/y and up +21% vs H2:24
  • More than 1/3 of H1 funding went to just 11 companies that raised rounds of $1bn or more
  • Both of the 2 largest venture fundings on record were raised this year…
    • Scale AI, with $14.3 billion in Q2
    • OpenAI with $40 billion in Q1

Short interest data for the period ending June 30 was made available this week, giving us a look at where sentiment stands across the LionTree Universe of ~150 publicly traded TMT and Consumer companies with $1bn+ market caps. While there weren’t any major changes in the list of most shorted names, there was some reshuffling at the top. Groupon moved into the #1 spot, followed by Hims & Hers and Gogo. A few names rotated in and out of the Top 20, including new entrants like GameStop, Oscar Health, Lyft, AMC Entertainment, Paramount and Magnite.

Even with elevated short interest across the group, Q2 was a tough period for short sellers. Only 7 of the 20 most shorted stocks underperformed the S&P 500’s +10.6% gain, while the Top 20 group overall climbed an average of +39.1%. AST SpaceMobile, which saw the largest increase in short interest last quarter, posted the largest decrease in Q2. On the flip side, Redfin had the biggest jump in short interest but still managed to rally +21.5% in the qtr.

See below for more details on our analysis.

As the AI landscape evolves, browsers are emerging as the next key interface and one which AI companies are increasingly seeing as ripe for innovation. Perplexity is the first amongst the major AI names to make a formal move this week with the launch of Comet, an AI-native browser. Designed around Perplexity’s conversational search engine, Comet integrates an assistant that helps users research, summarize, compare, and complete tasks in a single interface. The browser is currently available to Perplexity Max subscribers, with broader (invite-only) access rolling out over the summer.

While Perplexity may be the first major AI company to launch an AI-powered browser, it isn’t the first overall, as startups like The Browser Company and Brave have already rolled out AI-powered browsers with varying levels of integrated assistance. But momentum is clearly building as, also this week, OpenAI is reportedly preparing to debut its own browser in the coming weeks. That said, all of these companies face an uphill battle in a landscape where Google Chrome maintains an ironclad grip, powering more than two-thirds of the global browser market.

See below for more on these updates.

• Perplexity launches Comet, an AI-powered web browser “for today’s internet” (link/link/link)
  • Perplexity’s search engine is set as the default option for users
  • Enables users to ask questions, perform tasks, and conduct research in a single, unified interface
  • Integrates a built-in assistant that can compare products, summarize content, book meetings, and transform complex workflows into simple, conversational experiences
  • Comet is based on Chromium, the open-source software engine that underpins Chrome
    • Will support Chrome extensions and allow users to bring over their bookmarks
    • Chromium is also widely supported by websites, which avoids compatibility-related technical issues
  • Currently, the browser can run on Windows and macOS, and plan to add support for more operating systems in the coming months
  • Availability: Available now to Perplexity Max subscribers (Perplexity Max costs users $200/mo)
    • Broader invite-only access will roll out to their waitlist over the summer
    • New users will also receive a limited number of invites to share
  • Plan to “continue to launch new features and functionality for Comet” in the future

• OpenAI is also reportedly close to releasing its own web browser (link)
  • It is expected to launch in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the matter, cited by Reuters
  • The browser is reportedly designed to keep some user interactions within a ChatGPT-like native chat interface instead of clicking through to websites, per the sources

For context…what does the browser landscape look like now?

• Chrome dominates: Google Chrome, which is used by 3bn+ people, currently holds ~2/3 of the worldwide browser market, according to web analytics firm StatCounter; Apple’s Safari lags far behind with a ~18% share
  • For comparison, OpenAI said it had 3mn paying business users back in June, and also surpassed 400mn weekly active users back in February (link)
  • Also for comparison, Perplexity said it had 22mn active users back in May (link)

Source

• What other AI browsers are out there? Two other AI startups, The Browser Company and Brave, have released AI-powered browsers capable of browsing and summarizing the internet

While progress of virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR) has been disappointing vs earlier rosy projections, tech giants like Meta and Apple remain focused on investing in this area to help develop and eventually lead this potentially big market opportunity. There were press updates out this week pertaining to both companies’ investments or new product plans which highlights the continued steadfastness to foster growth and consumer adoption. Meta reportedly acquired just under 3% of Essilor Luxottica (with potential to buy more), signaling a deeper commitment to making smart glasses a mainstream product. Meanwhile, Apple reportedly is refining its approach to mixed reality with updates to the Vision Pro lineup, balancing performance enhancements in the near-term with a longer-term push toward broader market penetration through lighter, more affordable hardware. We are still a way off from an inflection point in consumer adoption, but big tech remains on that path…more color on these developments are below.

• Meta is reportedly plowing more money into AI-powered smart glasses (link): The Co apparently invested $3.5bn in Essilor Luxottica this week, which is aimed at accelerating the development & global rollout of AI-powered smart glasses
  • Meta reportedly acquired just under 3% of Essilor Luxottica (the world’s largest eyewear manufacturer and parent company of Ray-Ban and Oakley)
  • The investment was made at market value & could potentially increase to 5% over time, per sources
  • Meta has been collaborating w/ Essilor Luxottica since 2019…they have developed –
    • Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses
    • Oakley Meta HSTN
  • The deal is part of a broader vision by CEO Mark Zuckerberg to make wearable AI a central pillar of Meta’s future, alongside its investments in the metaverse and custom AI infrastructure

-> Essilor Luxottica shares jumped +5.5% in reaction to the press reports and Warby Parker shares also rallied +4.5% (Warby has a partnership with Google to develop AI glasses)  

• Apple is reportedly planning two major updates to its Vision Pro headset…the more significant one being in 2027 (link/link)
  • Vision Pro 2 is expected to launch later in 2025 – it’s a refreshed version of the current Vision Pro, and will –
    • Be Faster: It will have the M4 chip which is 2x faster than the older M2
    • More comfortable: The strap will be redesigned, which will improve comfort, especially for long-term wear
    • Weigh the same: The overall design & weight (~1.4 pounds) will remain mostly unchanged
    • Pricing is expected to remain the same: $3,499
  • A lighter & more affordable version is expected to be introduced in 2027 – it is reportedly internally dubbed the “N100” or possibly named Vision Pro Air; Key features:
    • It will be a complete redesign to reduce the weight & cost
    • It will use cheaper materials like plastic
    • It will have fewer sensors and possibly the removal of the EyeSight display to cut costs
    • This version is aimed at broader consumer adoption, addressing complaints about the current model’s price and comfort

As we flagged in Theme #8, 88% of consumers are watching the same or more streaming content than last year, and 30% find live content, like sports, “very appealing.” Streaming viewership certainly isn’t going anywhere (unless up), and sports rights activity is reflecting this sustained demand.

This week, Apple reportedly submitted a bid of between $150mn-$200mn for the US Formula 1 rights, which is more than double what ESPN currently pays. Meanwhile, Fox Nation made its first move into live sports with a deal to stream Professional Bull Riders’ weekly events, launching “PBR Friday Night Live” this August. Also, after a couple year gap, ESPN renewed its partnership with the BIG EAST in a 6-yr agreement that will bring 300+ live events annually to ESPN+. Finally, DAZN secured exclusive and non-exclusive rights to Italy’s Serie A for the 2025/26 season across the U.K., Ireland, and US, which adds to the Co’s ongoing broadcast of all 63 matches of this summer’s FIFA Club World Cup.

See below for more details on the slew of sports streaming developments this week.

• Apple reportedly bid on Formula 1’s US broadcast rights (link/link/link)
  • Success of Apple’s recent F1 movie at the box office is seen as a key driver for the bid: The film was an Apple Original Films project and has grossed over $300mn worldwide-to-date, making it Apple’s highest-grossing film ever
  • The Co is said to have offered “between $150mn and $200mn per year” — far above the reported $85mn to $90mn that ESPN is currently paying per annum, and far beyond what ESPN can rationally afford”
  • The league’s current deal w/ ESPN expires at the end of this yr
    • ESPN let its exclusive bidding period for the rights lapse, citing higher costs, however, it remains in the mix, alongside Apple and other bidders
  • If a deal materialized, Apple would stream F1 in the US starting w/ the 2026 season
  • What sports rights does Apple have currently? Apple TV+ features exclusive MLB matches with Friday Night Baseball, and the Apple TV app is the exclusive streaming home of all Major League Soccer games

• Fox Nation makes its first sports rights deal with Professional Bull Riders (link/link/link)
  • This will be the first time Fox-News owned streaming platform has offered weekly live sports coverage
    • Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch recently estimated that Fox Nation has surpassed 2mn paying customers
  • Will air the “PBR Friday Night Live” series: The series will launch on Aug 8 in Sunrise, FL, and continue through the fall, finishing with the league’s championship opener on Oct. 24 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
    • In a lead-up to the live coverage, starting July 11^th, Fox Nation will debut Season 2 of the reality series Last Cowboy Standing: Over the span of 10 weekly episodes, the series features a group of amateur bull riders competing for a chance to join a PBR team
  • PBR’s primary rights partner is Paramount Global; The deal with Fox is the first new rights deal for PBR since it was acquired by TKO Group earlier this yr

• ESPN and BIG EAST reunite w/ 6-yr media rights deal (link/link)
  • ESPN+ will stream 300+ BIG EAST events annually
    • Adds hundreds of live BIG EAST events to ESPN’s college sports portfolio
    • At least 25 non-conference BIG EAST Men’s basketball games, a minimum of 75 women’s basketball and 200 Olympic sport events will stream on ESPN+ annually beginning in the 2025-2026 academic season
  • Deal does NOT include a linear component, as those deals were struck a year ago with Fox, NBC, and TNT Sports
  • ESPN had the rights to the Big East from 1980 to 2013; The revived partnership comes after ESPN lost Big Ten media rights to Fox, NBC and CBS in 2022

• DAZN secures rights to Italy’s Serie A football in UK and US markets (link/link)
  • Exclusive and non-exclusive rights to Lega Serie A (Italy’s top football league) competitions
  • In the 2025/26 season, DAZN will stream every Serie A championship match in the UK and Ireland and the US…
    • In the UK & Ireland, have exclusive rights for up to 8 matches per round and non-exclusive rights for the remaining 2
    • In the US, 5 matches per round will be broadcast exclusively, and 5 matches per round will be available non-exclusively
  • …alongside highlight rights across most global territories
    • Also acquired highlight rights for the Serie A Championship, Coppa Italia and Supercoppa Italiana across nearly every country worldwide, excluding Italy, Republic of San Marino, Vatican City, and the MENA region
  • Comes as DAZN continues its global broadcast of all 63 matches of the FIFA Club World Cup this summer

As the global streaming landscape matures, consumer behaviors and expectations are shifting – driven by rising costs, evolving content preferences, and growing competition from alternative platforms. There were two survey results out this week that that we wanted to highlight as they shed some more light along these lines. First, the Global Streaming Study 2025 by Simon-Kucher showed that while 88% of users are watching the same or more content than last year, 42% feel they’re spending too much, and 35% plan to cancel at least one subscription, though nearly half would reconsider if offered cheaper, ad-supported options. With that said, bundles are gaining strong traction and live content, such as sports and concerts, are resonating especially with younger audiences. Lastly, the results point to social media increasingly competing for screen time. The second survey, conducted by Horowitz Research, also highlights strong consumer interest in unified service bundles and centralized subscription management.

-> On a related note, despite any growing subscription fatigue, it may not be as easy as they had hoped to actually cancel services given a U.S. appeals court this week blocked a rule that would have required businesses to make it as easy to cancel subscriptions and memberships as it is to sign up, saying the agency that created it did not follow protocol; The rule was set to take effect on July 14. Oh well…(link)

Global Streaming Study 2025 By Consultancy Firm Simon-Kucher (link / link)

• Users are watching more: 88% of users report consuming the same or more streaming content vs last year
• A critical mass of users think they are paying too much: 42% of paying subscribers believe they are spending too much on streaming services
• Over 1/3 say they plan to cancel streaming services: 35% of global users plan to cancel at least one subscription in the next 12 months
  • This is up 2 ppts vs responses last year
  • 48% said they would reconsider if offered a cheaper, ad-supported plan
• The majority of users subscribe via bundles: 51% of global subs now choose bundled streaming packages, often provided through telecom operators
• 30% of users—especially younger audiences—find live content “very appealing”: This includes sports competitions, concerts, breaking news, and cultural events
• Social media is a growing competitor to time spent streaming: 37% of users globally say social media is replacing their streaming time
  • In Spain and Sweden, this figure rose from 29% in 2024 to 36% in 2025
  • In highly digital markets –
    • India: 72%
    • Singapore: 56%
  • Among users under 40-year-olds, 49% view platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube as alternatives to traditional streaming
• Sample Size: Over 12,000 users across 11 countries

Horowitz Research (link)

• 66% of consumers say they would likely switch to a bundle from one provider for a wide variety of services, including streaming TV services, home security, fitness, smart home, music and other subscription services
  • Interest in bundling all digital services & apps is highest amongst –
    • Families with children in the home (76%)
    • Younger consumers (75% of 18-to-34-year-olds & 71% of consumers 35-49)
    • Streamers (71%)
• 56% of consumers wish there was one centralized place for them to manage all their subscriptions
• 41% said that keeping track of their various subscriptions to apps, streaming services, and smart home services is currently a challenge

• A first look into travel performance in Q2…Delta Airlines beats estimates as bookings stabilize and the Co reinstates its FY guidance (link/link/link)
  • Posted a strong Q2: Record rev of $15.5bn (+0.3% beat vs cons) on 13% op margin; EPS of $2.10 came in above cons $2.06
  • Q3 guidance also beat / Reinstated FY guidance: Q2 EPS of $1.25-$1.75 vs cons $1.34; FY EPS of $5.25-$6.25 beating by +7% and FCF of $3-4bn coming in +27% above
    • Decision to restore full-year financial guidance is a reflection of “our confidence in the business”
  • Since April, “demand trends stabilized …and we continued to see resilience in our diverse, high-margin revenue streams”, Delta president Glen Hauenstein said’
    • Corporate travel has also stabilized as bizs have more clarity and confidence than they did earlier this yr, but it’s in line with last yr, not the 5%-10% growth Delta expected at the start of the yr
    • “Strong demand” for transatlantic travel pushed rev from flights to European destinations up 2% from last year’s record level
  • Premium demand is up, while main cabin demand is still down: While fares have dropped across the US, Delta’s premium-product revenue rose +5% y/y, as sales from the main cabin fell -5% y/y
  • The passage of the tax and spending bill and the Trump administration rolling out more trade deals with “less rhetoric and more action” are giving customers more clarity and confidence, said CEO Ed Bastian

-> Delta was up +12% post its Q2 earnings report and ended the week up +11.4%; The stock is still down -6.4% YTD; Travel OTAs also rallied with Expedia up +4.1% this week as well

• NVIDIA reportedly plans to release a new AI chip designed for China (link)
  • The chip is a version of Nvidia’s existing Blackwell RTX Pro 6000 processor modified to meet Trump’s tightened export control rules, according to people with knowledge of the plans
    • The product would be stripped of the most advanced technologies, such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and NVLink, which improves interconnections for faster data transfers
  • Could be released as soon as September, as the Co wants to make sure the product complies with the Trump administration’s export restriction and won’t face a ban after launch
  • Nvidia’s clients in China have reportedly been testing samples of the chip and expressed interest in significant orders, according to the people with knowledge of the Co’s plans.
  • CEO Jensen Huang is reportedly also planning a visit to China, and is expected to reaffirm NVIDIA’s commitment to the Chinese mkt

• AT&T says it will accelerate its fiber network expansion following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill (link/link)
  • The bill means AT&T will be able to deploy fiber to an additional 1mn locations each year starting in 2026
  • At present, the carrier has deployed fiber to 30mn locations across the US, though it wants to hit 60mn by the end of 2030
  • The bill also “creates a pipeline of midband spectrum that will help meet soaring consumer demand and keep the U.S. technologically competitive with other countries”