LT Weekly: Feb 13, 2026
It was another week where concerns about AI disruption reverberated through the markets and dominated many of the earnings call across the sector. In most cases it has been a shoot and ask questions later mentality for investors and it can be difficult for many mgmt teams to disprove an AI bear thesis given we are at the very early stages of even understanding all the upstream and downstream implications.
Stock reactions to earnings this week continued to skew negative, with only 39% of companies in our LT TMT & Consumer universe trading higher following their reports. See Theme #1 for more details on that and the full list of what we focused on this week is below.
- Earning Scorecard – Week 4
- SPOT Refutes The AI Bear Case, Easing Some Investor Angst
- Agentic Shopping Disruption Risk Further Weighs On Shopify’s Shares
- DraftKings Resets Street Expectations While Pushing Ahead On The “Huge” Predictions Opportunity
- AppLovin’s & Unity’s Mgmt Were Not Able To Ease Investor AI + Meta Competition Concerns
- Big Retailer Exposure Disproportionately Weighs On Pinterest…Diversifying & Improving Go-To-Market = The Key Focus
- Expedia & Airbnb Show Strength In Q4 But See Diverging Reactions To Forward Positioning
- Instacart Executes Despite Fears Of Heightened Competition
- T-Mobile’s Growth Framework + More Shareholder Returns Appeased The Street This Week
- Quick Earnings Takes: Roku, & Lyft
As always, comments and feedback is always welcome and enjoy the long President’s weekend.
AND Happy Valentine’s Day!
Best,
Leslie
Earning Scorecard – Week 4
Week 4 of earnings has come to a close. In total, 28 stocks in our LionTree Universe reported. Stock reactions were skewed negatively again this week, with 17 stocks trading down and only 11 trading up. The best performer in reaction to earnings was Coinbase, which was up +16.5%, while the worst performer was Unity, which fell -26.3% (see Theme #5).
Media & streaming had some winners with Spotify closing up +14.7% after reporting (see Theme #3) and Roku rose +8.1% in reaction to its print (see Theme #10). Connectivity giant T-Mobile was also in the green post its Q4 results, rallying +5.1% (see Theme #9).
Consumer internet companies that reported this week had mixed performance in reaction to results, with last-mile grocery delivery Co Instacart shares’ trading up +8.6% (see Theme #8) while ride-sharing Co Lyft fell -17% (see Theme #10). Similarly mixed, OTA companies Airbnb and Expedia closed up +4.5% and down -6.7% respectively in response to their results (see Theme #7).
Aside from Unity, other application software companies that had a tough week include Applovin and Shopify, which were down -19.7% and -6.7% respectively the day after reporting (see Theme #5 and Theme #3). Also dragged down were DraftKings, whose shares fell -14.3% in reaction to earnings (see Theme #4) and Pinterest, whose stock declined -17% (see Theme #6).